CBAs Analysis: Round 1, 2022 – AFL Fantasy

CBAs – Centre Bounce Attendances – is a statistic that measures the number of times a player is present at a centre bounce at the beginning of a quarter or following a goal. A player that has a high attendance rate at CBAs is around the footy more and (in some cases) in a more fantasy-friendly midfield role.

Analyse the CBAs from the weekend of football in our user-friendly tables in our premium resources section – featuring advanced analytical tools to better measure the biggest changes, both seasonally and week-to-week.

Below, see who some of the biggest movers and shakers were from a CBA perspective over the weekend.

Bailey Smith

We had a listener asking us during the pre-season if we thought Bailey Smith would see more CBAs and a boost in fantasy scoring this season. Unanimously, we predicted he would stay on a wing and not be used on the inside any more than last year. With Marcus Bontempelli, Tom Liberatore, Jack Macrae, Adam Treloar and Josh Dunkley all rotating through the midfield, we thought it would be hard for him to break in.

Were we grossly incorrect on that call? Only time will tell. But on Wednesday night, Bailey Smith attended 61% of the centre bounces for Western Bulldogs, which is quite a leap from his 2021 average of 29%.

Throughout the finals series last year, Bailey Smith only attended 8.5% of the centre bounces, which makes this 52.5% increase look astounding.

However, there were a couple of key factors that may have played into Smith’s hand. First of all, Tom Liberatore only attended 1 CBA on Wednesday night (reportedly he had COVID the week prior). Marcus Bontempelli also spent significant time off the ground in the second half with an ankle complaint and we saw Bailey Smith’s CBAs rise after Bontempelli took the knock. That’s not to say Bailey Smith’s rise was a direct correlation with Bontempelli’s knock as he did attend 7 centre bounces in the first half, but Bontempelli did not attend another centre bounce after the injury scare.

Will it continue? Perhaps if Bontempelli is injured and Bulldogs continue to play Liberatore up forward, otherwise I’m not so sure.

But it was a good game for Bailey Smith owners.

Patrick Lipinski

There’s no way I can write this article after round 1 without talking about Patrick Lipinksi.

After writing a song about him, he lived up to the prophecy of becoming Collingwood’s new stat machine and the saviour of your keeper team.

At Western Bulldogs, he never got the inside role that he was destined to play, but he has finally found his place at a new club and boy did he put up an awesome performance. He played 81% game time and attended 48% of the centre bounces, scoring his owners 117 AFL Fantasy points.

This looks like it will continue long term, so owners have every right to be excited.

I’m calling it – it’s Patrick Lipinski Season!

Andrew Gaff

Traditionally an outside player, Andrew Gaff spent a lot of time in the guts on the weekend.

We all know why this occurred. West Coast was missing a raft of players on the weekend including inside ball winners such as Luke Shuey, Tim Kelly, Dom Sheed, and Elliott Yeo. This resulted in Gaff attending 74% of the Eagles’ centre bounces, which was 46.2% up on his season average in 2021.

Whilst we know there were a lot of players out who may return soon, Dom Sheed and Elliot Yeo are set to miss a bit of footy and we know what Luke Shuey’s injury history is like, so we could see Gaff used at the centre bounces a lot more in the short term.

Monitor this as he could be a good short term pick and perhaps worth targeting in a trade.

Isaac Heeney

It had been rumoured all offseason that Heeny was set to make his mark in the midfield this year and it came to fruition in round 1.

Heeney was used at 47% of the centre bounces which was a 44% rise on last year’s attendance numbers. As a result, we saw his fantasy numbers jump scoring 121 AFL Fantasy points from 83% time-on-ground.

Whilst I think the midfield role and the scoring bump is real, I still worry about the fact that Sydney likes to share the CBAs around. For example, we saw Justin McInerney jump in there for some big numbers for a week last season, never to be seen again. Same with Tom Papley – he had a few games out of the blue with large CBA numbers.

The point I’m trying to make is there might be weeks where Heeney will not be used in the guts and will play more time up forward, depending on the opposition. So just be prepared for this if it happens.

Brayden Fiorini

This guy makes the list for the opposite reasons as the guys above.

On the weekend against West Coast, Fiorini saw a dip in his CBA numbers. Last year (if you take out his sub affected game) he attended 56% of the centre bounces in the games that he played. On the weekend he only attended 35% of the CBAs, which is down 21% on last year’s numbers.

Matt Rowell coming back into the side, playing as an inside midfielder, and absolutely dominating did not help his cause. Fiorini appeared to be playing more on the outside throughout this game. Luckily, it did not affect his fantasy numbers too much as he still put up a respectable score of 93 but I do think it will be harder for him to score big if he’s not getting his regular CBA numbers.

It’s not panic stations for Fiorini yet, but there is some cause for concern.

Preview of Advanced CBA Stats:

View more CBA Analysis numbers here.

Key:
LG% – Percentage of CBAs last game
LG%vsPG% – Percentage of CBAs last game versus percentage of CBAs previous game
Avg% – Average of CBA percentage in games played
L3Avg% – Average of CBA percentage over the past three games
LG%vsAvg% – Last game CBA percentage vs average CBA percentage
L3G%vsAvg% – Last three games CBA percentage vs average CBA percentage