CBA Analysis - Round 12 - The Keeper League
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Data Analysis

CBA Analysis – Round 12

CBAs – Centre Bounce Attendances – is a statistic that measures the number of times a player is present at a centre bounce at the beginning of a quarter or following a goal. A player that has a high attendance rate at CBAs is around the footy more and (in some cases) in a more fantasy-friendly midfield role. 

Analyse the CBAs from round 12 in our user-friendly table below – featuring advanced analytic tools to better measure the biggest changes, both seasonally and week-to-week – and check out my five risers and fallers to monitor in AFL Fantasy.

Risers

Scott Pendlebury (12 CBAs; 46% attendance) | 104 AFL Fantasy

The CBA musical chairs for season 2021 continues at the Pies. Our ‘riser’ this week was the ‘faller’ just two weeks ago. In recent weeks, Scott Pendlebury found himself on a forward flank and out of the CBAs while carrying an injury, according to coach Nathan Buckley. A gift from the fantasy Gods, perhaps, the lack of mid-time was enough to make Pendles a forward DPP in the AFL Fantasy format. A move to the half-back line at the opening bounce in round 12 (in place of the managed fantasy superstar, Chris Mayne) was a welcome move for the 33-year-old, recording 10 disposals, 4 marks and 4 tackles for 55 first-half fantasy points. After half-time, an injury to Brayden Sier forced the Pies skipper back into the cole face – notching his first CBA since round 9 – and going on to attend 12/12 centre bounces in the second half. Who’s left with a seat in the CBA musical chairs next week is anyone’s guess, but with Mayne available to slot into defence, Pendles might have got the forward status just in time for his midfield revival.

Adam Cerra (14 CBAs; 56% attendance) | 76 AFL Fantasy

There were some in the fantasy community (including myself) that had high hopes that fourth-year Docker, Adam Cerra would go gangbusters during his crucial “show me the money!” contract year. Alas, the second-worst pandemic of the 2020s, Sydnesmosis-69, derailed the contract year prophecy and foretold of a gloomy month on the sidelines. The 19-year-old has fought back since his return to produce three solid games – without recording the heavy CBA numbers that made his early-season form so mouth-watering. A return to the forward line for Michael Walters and a shoulder injury to captain Nat Fyfe in round 12 have seen Cerra’s inside midfield stonks back on the rise. A modest month of fantasy scoring could have some draft coaches eager to offload, meaning now could be the time to pounce on the ultra-talented young gun.

Caleb Daniel (10 CBAs; 40% attendance) | 79 AFL Fantasy

Injuries to centre bounce beasts, Treloar and Dunkley in recent weeks finally opened the door for midfield jet, Patrick Lipinski to breakou-… What’s that? He was omitted!? OK, finally opened the door for last year’s breakout inside midfielder, Bailey Smith to once again thrive on the insi-… He was back to a wing!? Hmmm… not Bevo enough… finally opened the door for All-Australian DEFENDER, Caleb Daniel to move inside??? BINGO!!! Bevo once again tricked us all into thinking he’d give us an easy CBA uptick to one of our promising young gun fantasy favourites. Instead, it was the Dogs reigning best and fairest half-back who got inserted into the centre bounce mix as an unlikely inside midfielder. Daniel only managed one clearance for the day but applied the second most pressure acts behind Tom Liberatore and managed a season-high six tackles.

TLDR; Bevo.

Fallers

Ed Curnow (4 CBAs; -56% round diff) | 47 AFL Fantasy

The return of the GOAT, Paddy Dow (18 CBAs; 64% attendance) pushed the elder Curnow brother back to an outside role – ringing alarm bells for owners. If Training Wheels Teague opts to continue to roll with Dow, Will Setterfield, or even Zac Williams (at some point) for the remainder of the season, expect Curnow’s downward CBA trend to continue as the Blues yet again hit panic stations. With an average of 95 sitting next to the 31-year-old’s name ahead of the round 13 bye, now may be your final chance to sell before any remaining value disintegrates. Alternatively, if we assume the Baggers are in for a huge shake-up, buy-low opportunities for all the other potential drastic magnet-shifting midfield options – those mentioned above, plus possibly Jack Martin, Lachie Fogarty, or Liam Stocker – exists for a short window.

Andrew McGrath (1 CBA; -49% round diff) | 15 AFL Fantasy

Andy McGrath has been a steady centre bounce attendee for the fresh and exciting Dons in their surprising rise up the ladder in 2021. Unfortunately, a PCL injury will see the former number one pick likely miss the remainder of the home and away season. McGrath’s midfield load (54.4% average attendance rate) in round 12 was distributed among Jake Stringer (+19% round diff) and Archie Perkins (+17% round diff) with the latter a quality long-term keeper league stash. The most tempting option from a fantasy perspective is the forward-eligible, Kyle Langford (22 CBAs; 64% attendance). Whilst the 24-year-old has had a healthy dose of CBAs since round 9, injuries to multiple key midfield members, now including McGrath, should ensure his sustained return to the engine room. Langford averaged 79.1 from rounds 1-8 while attending just 8% of centre bounces. Since then, he’s had a four-game average of 102.5 while boosting his CBAs up to a 69% attendance rate – nice.

Tables

Last Round vs Previous Round

Filter:

PlayerClubPosAFTOG%CBACBA%PRCBAPRCBA%CBADifCBA%Dif
Tim EnglishWBR908019764161560
Scott PendleburyCWC104921246001246
Adam CerraFRC769014564131043
Caleb DanielWBB79811040001040
Mabior CholRIR,F9781246910301439
Callum L. BrownCWF573793500935
David MundyFRC1117818721342530
Jack GrahamRIC1047772000720
Nikolas CoxESB,F1049192627719
Oliver FlorentSYC4381829310519
Jake StringerESF56851234415819
Archie PerkinsESC,F407561700617
Reilly O'BrienADR1119425962679-117
Rory LobbFRR,F57100728413315
Luke ParkerSYC978720711757314
Josh DaicosCWC84861142528614
Hugh McCluggageBLC93841241928313
Andrew GaffWCC998714501037413
Callum MillsSYB968124862273213
Clayton OliverMEC869328972184713
Sebastian RossSKC8787725313412
Rory SloaneADC907722852473-212
Tom LiberatoreWBC717822881976312
Jake MelkshamMEF2557724312412
Dom SheedWCC1238621751763412
Jack MartinCAF6675621310311
Callum Coleman-JonesRIR,F698261726411
Ryan ByrnesSKC566631100311
Max GawnMER1089323791768611
Dion PrestiaRIC976921602370-210
Zach MerrettESC112853189228198
Jack SteeleSKC137842589208356
Darcy ParishESC160873291238596
Tom De KoningCAR4779103693016
Oscar McInerneyBLR408224832578-15
Jack ReddenWCC120872279207425
Paddy RyderSKR95812693218855
Jack MacraeWBC114832184208014
Marcus BontempelliWBC125832080197614
Thomas HighmoreSKB2147140014
Caleb SerongFRC847417682065-33
Ben KeaysADC1158422852782-53
Charlie CameronBLF6485130013
Brad CrouchSKC131842382197943
Kysaiah PickettMEF6580130013
Jake AartsRIF8189130013
David ZaharakisESF4458130013
Bailey J. WilliamsWCR,F136862151912
Lachie HunterWBC9985141400
Dustin MartinRIC,F10994226321641-1
Shai BoltonRIC,F8982154315450-2
Nic NaitanuiWCR8175227922810-2
Dayne ZorkoBLC,F1188211381341-2-3
Patrick CrippsCAC728722792583-3-4
Luke DunstanSKC8683227920832-4
Joe DaniherBLF7490517722-2-5
Josh P. KennedySYC537418642170-3-6
Marc PittonetCAR748318642170-3-6
Elliot YeoWCC776618641970-1-6
Andrew PhillipsESR8577267422814-7
Kyle LangfordESC,F11486226319703-7
Will SetterfieldCAC948314501757-3-7
Andrew BrayshawFRC1017710401548-5-8
Christian PetraccaMEC11990217220801-8
Sean DarcyFRR936218722581-7-9
Josh BattleSKC,F226614313-2-9
Sam WalshCAC1278820712480-4-9
Rory LairdADB,C1318219732782-8-9
Luke JacksonMEF4759621832-2-11
Trent CotchinRIC737620572370-3-13
Deven RobertsonBLC,F817214482063-6-15
Riley ThilthorpeADR,F487914721-6-17
Zac BaileyBLC,F99835171134-6-17
Nat FyfeFRC487015602477-9-17
Jordan De GoeyCWF7887145413721-18
James HarmesMEB628920692288-2-19
Steele SidebottomCWC,F9478623844-2-21
Jarryd LyonsBLC1107317592681-9-22
James JordonMEC608613728-6-25
James RowbottomSYC676414502480-10-30
Darcy CameronCWF41878311161-3-30
Brayden SierCWC29256231056-4-33
Riley Collier-DawkinsRIC2958391648-13-39
Jack CrispCWB1139414541794-3-40
Rhys MathiesonBLC,F155271753-15-46
Andrew McGrathESC157131452-13-49
Michael WaltersFRC,F4683141755-16-51
Ed CurnowCAC47794142170-17-56
Joel AmarteySYR,F747327
Lachie NealeBLC71822586
Ronin O'ConnorADC20571558
Luke EdwardsWCC556514
Max LynchCWR,F55731869
Marlion PickettRIC5380514
Tom HickeySYR83852693
Jamie ElliottCWC,F10581623
Shane EdwardsRIC59761646
Stefan MartinWBR2336624
Hunter ClarkSKB3772414
Paddy DowCAC,F48791864
Xavier O'NeillWCC,F7077829
Rhylee WestWBF103814
Tom SparrowMEC7958931

Key:

AF – AFL Fantasy points scored last round
TOG% – Percentage of Time On Ground last round
CBA – Centre Bounce Attendances
CBA% – Centre Bounce Attendance Percentage
PRCBA – Previous Round Centre Bounce Attendances
PRCBA% – Previous Round Centre Bounce Attendance Percentage
CBADif – CBA Differential of Last Round vs Previous Round
CBA%Dif – CBA% Differential of Last Round vs Previous Round


Advanced CBA Stats

PlayerClubPosLR%LR%vPR%Avg%L3Avg%LR%vAvg%
Tim EnglishWBR7660304646
Kyle LangfordESC,F63-728.366.334.7
Paddy DowCAC,F6431.26432.8
Callum L. BrownCWF35354.911.730.1
Jordan De GoeyCWF54-183148.723
Tom LiberatoreWBC881265.274.722.8
Callum MillsSYB861365.478.320.6
Adam CerraFRC564335.625.320.4
Nikolas CoxESB,F26196.21119.8
Mabior CholRIR,F693949.549.519.5

Key:

LR% – Percentage of CBAs last round
LR%vsPR% – Percentage of CBAs last round versus percentage of CBAs previous round
Avg% – Average of CBA percentage
L3Avg% – Average of CBA percentage over the past three rounds
LR%vsAvg% – Last round CBA percentage vs average CBA percentage

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Members can view the full table here


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