CBA Analysis - Round 16 - The Keeper League
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Data Analysis

CBA Analysis – Round 16

CBAs – Centre Bounce Attendances – is a statistic that measures the number of times a player is present at a centre bounce at the beginning of a quarter or following a goal. A player that has a high attendance rate at CBAs is around the footy more and (in some cases) in a more fantasy-friendly midfield role. 

Analyze the CBAs from round 16 in our user-friendly table below – featuring advanced analytic tools to better measure the biggest changes, both seasonally and week-to-week – and check out my five risers and fallers to monitor in AFL Fantasy.

Risers

PADDY DOW! (19 CBAs; 79% attendance) | 67 AFL Fantasy points

Paddy Dow take a bow! The prophecy of GOATdem was fulfilled in round 16, with a phenomenal showing of genuine midfield craft. The 21-year-old had a monumental opening term, notching 11 disposals, 9 contested possessions, six clearances, and 28 AFL Fantasy points, before allowing his teammates to get involved after single-handedly handing the Blues the dubs with his early work. Dow finally has the role he was born to play as a crafty, slippery, clearance monster: INSIDE MID – recording 40 per cent or more CBAs in every game since round 12. Don’t say we didn’t warn you!

Patrick Dangerfield (20 CBAs; 74% attendance) | 149 AFL Fantasy points

The second-best player with the initials “PD” in the AFL, Dangerfield was back to dominant Danger on the weekend, going ballistic in a pure midfield role. He racked up close to 40 disposals, had 11 marks and fell just one point shy of the magical 150 fantasy points after recording his highest CBA percentage since round 1 this year. Way #2G4P for the Keeper League Pod, Dangerfield comes into calculations in Classic circles as a potential top-six forward for the run home if he stays permanently in the engine room. An injury to Jeremy Cameron on the weekend may have coaches nervous of a potential Bevo-esque switch to the forward line, but after a masterful midfield display – it’s hard to see Chris Scott moving Danger too far up the… Field?

George Hewett (17 CBAs; 68% attendance) | 83 AFL Fantasy points

After being moulded into a defender in recent times, it’s been a welcome return to familiar territory for Hewett in the past two weeks with CBAs back on the menu! Starting in a negating role on West Coast’s Luke Shuey, Hewett also racked up a season-high for disposals (26) and clearances (five) on his way to a quality fantasy score for a defender-eligible player as the Swans ran rampant. However, the 25-year-old’s time in the centre square may be short lived, with Rowbottom’s demotion to medi-sub seemingly more of a rest for the 20-year-old – as his season-long (nice) 69% time on ground might suggest – than a genuine dropping. Perhaps we should get more excited by Erol Gulden losing his CBA virginity! The young gun recorded a couple of cheeky CBAs during the blowout win – illustrating some observable thirst along the way.

Fallers

Ed Curnow (3 CBAs; -51% CBA diff) | 67 AFL Fantasy points

A changing of the guard at Ikon Park has seen the veterans cop the brutal reality of the youth movement in a rebuild. Whilst the Blues are clinging onto a potential finals birth, there’s a clear need to blood the youth to really prime a contender for future years. Dow (+39%), Kennedy (+23%), and Petrevski-Seton (+13%) were given some extra opportunities at CBAs at the expense of poor of Ed, while Sam Walsh – who attended a season-low 29% of centre bounces – moved to the outside to accommodate his more one-dimensional teammates. We’ve seen Curnow have dips in his midfield usage throughout his career, particularly in recent years as the Blues dabbled in midfield mixups, but this time it feels permanent. Jump off immediately in all forms of draft if you can still get value given the 88.9 average that still sits next to his name.

Caleb Serong (13 CBAs; -26% diff) | 65 AFL Fantasy points

The Dockers are desperately pushing for a finals berth, and are happy with a blend of old heads and youthful exuberance in the guts as they aim for September. It’s an ideal setup for young mids to blossom; the mature bodies and high IQ football minds of Fyfe and Mundy standing right beside them as they grow. Unfortunately, it’s not as ideal for our fantasy teams in the short term, and Caleb Serong is certainly one that could feel the brunt of that fantasy hit amidst a healthy, finals-bound list. It’s hard to find a better buy-low in your keeper leagues than Serong; a points per minute beast (he sits fourth for PPM among players 21 and under who have played more than 10 games in 2021) who’s illustrated a huge ceiling (143 in round six and four scores with an adjusted 110+ in his rookie year), who’s also slightly down on the massive expectations set by many fantasy coaches in just his second year. Grab him ASAP in your keepers to enjoy the uptick in CBAs, TOG, and fantasy scoring during The Oracle’s beloved THIRD YEAR BREAKOUT in 2022!

Tables

Last Round vs Previous Round

Filter:

PlayerClubPosAFTOG%CBACBA%PRCBAPRCBA%CBADifCBA%Dif
Patrick DangerfieldGEC,F1497520747321342
Paddy DowCAC,F678219791040939
Liam ShielsHWC738393800938
Travis BoakPAC1008222921662630
Deven RobertsonBLC,F787419669411025
Mabior CholRIR,F78701565640925
Paddy RyderSKR72711777853924
Matthew KennedyCAC,F957817711248523
Tom SparrowMEC,F565542000420
Tim KellyWCC978318721252620
Jack MacraeWBC9484268415651119
Archie PerkinsESC,F366451900519
Luke JacksonMEF6281840421419
Brad CrouchSKC817419861067919
Josh P. KennedySYC917214561038418
Connor RozeePAF608752114417
Shai BoltonRIC,F55811357640717
Luke Davies-UniackeNMC7181227112551016
Shane EdwardsRIC39721043427616
Kysaiah PickettMEF326731500315
Scott LycettPAR8993241002285215
Riley ThilthorpeADR,F468841400414
George HewettSYC,B837217681454314
Steele SidebottomCWC,F478331400314
Touk MillerGCC1418620871673414
Marlion PickettRIC568231300313
Tom MitchellHWC1088316671554113
Sam Petrevski-SetonCAB537441714313
Liam DugganWCB,C928931200312
Ben KeaysADC918023791768611
Josh KellyGWSC,F1148215751864-311
Luke ShueyWCC637017681357411
Dustin MartinRIC,F699219831173810
Hugh McCluggageBLC7480828418410
Darcy CameronCWF4071627517110
Dayne ZorkoBLC,F9779124173259
Dom SheedWCC129861456114838
Sam FlandersGCF496062641828
James HarmesMEB,C867294573728
Jonathon CeglarHWR,F917620832175-18
Tristan XerriNMF3776113562758
Errol GuldenSYC,F8871280028
Oscar McInerneyBLR87912793198687
Elliot YeoWCC118791872156537
Luke ParkerSYC100792080197317
Rory LobbFRR,F481003132716
Ben CunningtonNMC131802374156886
Luke DunstanSKC117891986128076
Brandan ParfittGEC,F74661556115046
Zach TuohyGEC,B10484140014
James BellSYF7275140014
Patrick CrippsCAC69862188218404
Alec WatermanESF3873140014
Jack SteeleSKC157872091138774
Jacob HopperGWSC707815752071-54
Tom HickeySYR88862184218103
Sam BerryADC,F4680130013
Paul SeedsmanADC807741431212
Jarryd LyonsBLC133882379177762
Peter WrightESF,R4879271512
Callan WardGWSC1127311551554-41
Clayton OliverMEC104851680157911
Willem DrewPAC737515631662-11
Scott PendleburyCWC,F1028220912790-71
Jake StringerESF112822385168471
Jaidyn StephensonNMF,C718661941821
David MundyFRC827317712170-41
Zach MerrettESC143872489178970
Josh BruceWBF578813140-1
Darcy ParishESC14386259318957-2
Sebastian RossSKC788715170-2
Sam DraperESR5382259318957-2
Zac BaileyBLC,F948610348362-2
Ollie WinesPAC1517519792181-2-2
Jaeger O'MearaHWC758419792382-4-3
Joel AmarteySYR,F7084416519-1-3
Tarryn ThomasNMF,C867410328362-4
James WorpelHWC968316672071-4-4
Jack MartinCAF56801428-1-4
Tom De KoningCAR636819792184-2-5
Rory SloaneADC8787237921842-5
Rory LairdADB,C11879237921842-5
Sean DarcyFRR,F1168521882893-7-5
Bailey SmithWBC6478216817744-6
James JordonMEC5965210316-1-6
Marcus BontempelliWBC10486247719835-6
Nic NaitanuiWCR7164187218780-6
Tom LiberatoreWBC11975227118784-7
Joe DaniherBLF619027314-1-7
Jamie ElliottCWC,F5082523930-4-7
Oliver FlorentSYC9584416623-2-7
Luke BreustHWF357814311-2-7
Ben McEvoyHWB,R8683417725-3-8
Todd GoldsteinNMR10085206516734-8
Jy SimpkinNMC9983237418825-8
Trent CotchinRIC7568156511734-8
Christian PetraccaMEC1369216801789-1-9
Joel SelwoodGEC8864176316731-10
Taylor AdamsCWC1098417772687-9-10
Brodie GrundyCWR997616732583-9-10
Andrew BrayshawFRC1247312501860-6-10
Sam Powell-PepperPAC,F446628519-3-11
Will PhillipsNMC,F35669299410-12
Jai NewcombeHWC577110421554-5-12
Tim TarantoGWSC1158211551968-8-13
Mark BlicavsGEB,C7288519732-2-13
Josh DaicosCWC,F9571314827-5-13
Sam DayGCF6181313627-3-14
Reilly O'BrienADR87882586251000-14
Kyle LangfordESC,F6586311526-2-15
Cameron GuthrieGEC586614521568-1-16
Matt FlynnGWSR20756301346-7-16
Callum MillsSYB,C1167717682285-5-17
Harry SchoenbergADF,C686810341352-3-18
Max GawnMER969212601579-3-19
Adam CerraFRC987712502170-9-20
Matt RowellGCC718513571777-4-20
Sam WalshCAC128907291352-6-23
Jack VineyMEC777710501474-4-24
Rowan MarshallSKR,F9164523747-2-24
Caleb SerongFRC658013542480-11-26
Ryan ByrnesSKC6073732960-2-28
Callum Coleman-JonesRIR,F330522853-3-31
Karl AmonPAC109799381869-9-31
Tim EnglishWBR,F548120652296-2-31
Jack CrispCWB,C99895231963-14-40
Jack ReddenWCC18285201565-10-45
Ed CurnowCAC67893131664-13-51
Riley Collier-DawkinsRIC28631148
Max HolmesGEC,F335314
Chris BurgessGCB,R88862087
Conor NashHWF248214
Finlay MacraeCWC,F510314
Luke PedlarADC4977310
Nathan VardyWCR4074728
Lewis YoungWBB63821032
Jordan De GoeyCWF124861045
Rhys StanleyGER64632281
Brayden FioriniGCC101731774
Nat FyfeFRC,F67871875
David SwallowGCC105821357
Quinton NarkleGEC57631348
Tom GreenGWSC9073840
Jack RossRIC566714
Rhys MathiesonBLC,F62651552
Shane MumfordGWSR78771470
Levi CasboultCAF4078521

Key:

AF – AFL Fantasy points scored last round
TOG% – Percentage of Time On Ground last round
CBA – Centre Bounce Attendances
CBA% – Centre Bounce Attendance Percentage
PRCBA – Previous Round Centre Bounce Attendances
PRCBA% – Previous Round Centre Bounce Attendance Percentage
CBADif – CBA Differential of Last Round vs Previous Round
CBA%Dif – CBA% Differential of Last Round vs Previous Round


Advanced CBA Stats

PlayerClubPosLR%LR%vPR%Avg%L3Avg%LR%vAvg%L3R%vAvg%
Chris BurgessGCB,R8728465918
George HewettSYCB68149.76158.351.3
Bailey SmithWBC68-623.447.344.623.9
Paddy DowCAC,F79394057.73917.7
Scott PendleburyCWC,F91155.890.535.234.7
Josh KellyGWSC,F751140.56334.522.5
Matthew KennedyCAC,F712336.65434.417.4
Tom De KoningCAR79-549.766.329.316.7
Jonathon CeglarHWR,F83855.478.727.623.3
Deven RobertsonBLC,F662538.846.327.27.6

Key:

LR% – Percentage of CBAs last round
LR%vsPR% – Percentage of CBAs last round versus percentage of CBAs previous round
Avg% – Average of CBA percentage
L3Avg% – Average of CBA percentage over the past three rounds
LR%vsAvg% – Last round CBA percentage vs average CBA percentage

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Members can view the full table here


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