CBA Analysis - Round 20 - The Keeper League
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Data Analysis

CBA Analysis – Round 20

CBAs – Centre Bounce Attendances – is a statistic that measures the number of times a player is present at a centre bounce at the beginning of a quarter or following a goal. A player that has a high attendance rate at CBAs is around the footy more and (in some cases) in a more fantasy-friendly midfield role. 

Analyze the CBAs from round 20 in our user-friendly table below – featuring advanced analytic tools to better measure the biggest changes to CBA numbers, both long term and week-to-week, and check out my risers and fallers to monitor in AFL Fantasy below.

Risers

Justin McInerney (21 CBAs, 57% attendance) | 101 AFL Fantasy points
This guy is impressing us more and more each week. After shifting to a half-back role from a wing earlier in the year, he’s seen a big uptick in scoring. He played the first half of the game this week in defence, as per usual, but then John Longmire unexpectedly threw him into the midfield and he did not disappoint. Prior to this game, McInerney had attended less than 1% of centre bounces for Sydney this season. On Sunday he attended 57% of the centre bounces for the game and scored 101 AFL Fantasy points. Will this continue though? He only managed one centre clearance from 21 CBAs, but he did some impressive things from stoppages around the ground. Also, keep in mind that have seen a number of players roll through Sydney’s midfield this season. Players like Chad Warner, George Hewett and James Rowbottom have all seemed to play roles in the Sydney midfield but then have faded away a short time after, so it’s hard to tell who gets a midfield spot long term. However, McInerney has shown some great signs of becoming a decent fantasy scorer this season and should be on your radar if he’s available in your league.

Adam Cerra (14 CBAs, 88% attendance) | 138 AFL Fantasy points
I said on the podcast last week that Andrew Brayshaw was the player that scored best when Nat Fyfe was out. And whilst Andrew Brayshaw did put up a massive score on the weekend, we definitely saw a bump from Adam Cerra. On Sunday he attended 88% of the centre bounces for Fremantle and put up a whopping 138 points. Prior to Round 20, Cerra’s previous highest CBA% came in Round 15, where he attended 70% of centre bounces, but this was also a game that Fyfe missed. In the past few weeks, we’ve seen him used more in an outside role but with Fyfe out for the remainder of the season, you would assume these CBA numbers will continue for the rest of the season. Adam Cerra remains unsigned at Fremantle and could find himself at a new club in 2022. Hopefully, he treats the final three rounds as an audition for his suitors and puts up some big numbers for fantasy coaches in this role.

Jack Silvagni (20 CBAs, 63% attendance) | 126 AFL Fantasy points
Last week we talked about Jack Silvagni’s backup ruck role and discussed the possibility of it continuing for the remainder of the season. Well, things got real when Tom De Koning left the ground with a pectoral injury in the second quarter and Jack Silvagni was thrown into Carlton’s number one ruck role. Whilst he didn’t win too many hit-outs rucking against Rowan Marshall, he was allowed to simply contest in the ruck and then play as an extra midfielder which resulted in a juicy score of 126 AFL Fantasy points. There has been some news since that De Koning has been cleared of any muscle damage and could play this weekend, so we might not see the scoring bump we may have expected after Friday night. However, Silvagni played the backup ruck role the week prior and scored 106 points, so he may not need the number one spot to be a handy scorer. Regardless of whether De Koning plays this week or not, I think Silvagni is a player that could put up a big score in a final to help get your team over the line in a tight matchup.

Fallers

Shai Bolton (2 CBAs; -63% CBA diff) | 49 AFL Fantasy points
Last week we heard Damien Hardwick talk about Dion Prestia’s return and how it would impact Shai Bolton’s role. He said his preferred role for Shai was up forward and was only used in the midfield when Prestia was out. This would have made many fantasy coaches nervous and I don’t think they feel any better after seeing the game on Sunday. In fact, I think they all feel much, much worse. Bolton saw a 63% decrease in centre bounce attendances and only put up a measly score of 49 points while Prestia scored a tonne in the midfield. Long term, I think Bolton will be fine and he’ll find himself back in the midfield eventually, but we might see him up forward for the next few weeks which is poor timing with fantasy finals now in full swing.

Max Gawn (16 CBAs; -26% CBA diff) | 109 AFL Fantasy points
There has been talk this year of Max Gawn and how Melbourne are going to develop Luke Jackson when playing both in the same team. One the weekend, we saw a glimpse into the future and it wasn’t at all that bad. Coming up against a favourable ruck matchup in Zac Smith and Chris Burgess at Gold Coast, Melbourne took the opportunity to play Gawn up forward more and increase Jackson’s time in the ruck. As a result, Max Gawn’s CBAs decreased by 26% and Luke Jackson’s numbers rose by the exact same number. However, Gawn still managed to score 109 points, whilst Luke Jackson put up a very respectable 95 points. I think we’ll see more of this in the future where the two rotate between ruck and forward and I don’t think it will be that bad for Gawn owners. Whilst his ceiling might not be a high as it once was, he showed on the weekend that he can put still put up a respectable score playing less ruck time. And if he somehow manages to play forward enough to get forward status one day, I don’t think there will be too many coaches complaining about that.

Tables

Last Round vs Previous Round

Filter:

PlayerClubPosAFTOG%CBACBA%PRCBAPRCBA%CBADifCBA%Dif
Justin McInerneySYC101842157002157
Adam CerraFRC138791488831657
Callan WardGWSC68781757151652
Jack SilvagniCAF1268520636181445
Andrew BrayshawFRC1568415941350244
Joel SelwoodGEC927415831040543
Jed AndersonNMC65751056515541
Matthew KennedyCAC,F10982226910301239
Brandan ParfittGEC,F2584950312638
Shane EdwardsRIC59841063728335
Sam BerryADC,F347093300933
Luke Davies-UniackeNMC918014781545-133
Trent CotchinRIC998415941664-130
Zak ButtersPAC,F8879103314929
Sean DarcyFRR,F85881063935128
Zac FisherCAF7177113426928
David SwallowGCC103821038310728
Jarrod BerryBLC45631240414826
Luke JacksonMER,F95771038312726
Dylan ShielESC756517464211325
Connor RozeePAF698382714723
Curtis TaylorNMF817142200422
Luke DunstanSKC907720631343720
Josh BruceWBF688751900519
Liam BakerRIB,C628431900319
Patrick DangerfieldGEC,F677914781560-118
Tom MitchellHWC1288323771959418
Connor WestWCC577941700417
Jaeger O'MearaHWC1468125832166417
Peter WrightESR,F658361600616
Will PhillipsNMC,F5774739824-115
Finlay MacraeCWC,F596716671452215
Patrick CrippsCAC968526812267414
Hugh McCluggageBLC10978930517413
Ben McEvoyHWB,R538114471134313
Matt RowellGCC706813501138212
Tristan XerriNMF2579633721-112
Clayton OliverMEC1108823882077311
Toby NankervisRIR766812751664-411
Oscar AllenWCF437841727210
Darcy CameronCWF518641727210
Charlie CameronBLF508631000310
Bailey SmithWBC118852281197338
Kysaiah PickettMEF7679280028
Tom HickeySYR718633892181128
Dayne ZorkoBLC,F132841653134538
Paddy DowCAC,F87862166195828
Mitch HannanWBF6978270027
Kane LambertRIF7480531624-17
Zac BaileyBLC,F588293072426
Jacob HopperGWSC817324801474106
Lachie NealeBLC75752377217225
Taylor AdamsCWC1158220832178-15
Touk MillerGCC1358323882483-15
Alex Neal-BullenMEF9276140014
Steele SidebottomCWC,F1148315631659-14
Riley GarciaWBC7673140014
Scott LycettPAR79822273197033
Isaac HeeneySYF9092130013
Archie PerkinsESC,F1761130013
Harry PerrymanGWSB,C8381130013
Joe DaniherBLF5394130013
Tom GreenGWSC4670124073753
Jack VineyMEC64781765166213
Tanner BruhnGWSC2423271512
Jordan De GoeyCWC,F1258120832281-22
Mark BlicavsGEB,C8577422520-12
Reilly O'BrienADR1299425932991-42
Errol GuldenSYC,F5477251411
Oscar McInerneyBLR94822687258611
Quinton NarkleGEC6478633832-21
Brad CrouchSKC86821341124011
Jaidyn StephensonNMC,F8178422721-31
Rory LairdADB,C1047621782578-40
Ryan ByrnesSKC,F7079131300
Ben KeaysADC698221782578-40
Will SnellingESF5989251510
Tom FullartonBLR,F66764134140-1
Elliott HimmelbergADF55812739-1-2
Jack SteeleSKC16285268125831-2
Rhys StanleyGER726914782080-6-2
Jack MartinCAF62771326-1-3
Peter LadhamsPAR,F74798278300-3
James WorpelHWC1068519632166-2-3
Karl AmonPAC122758278300-3
Tim TarantoGWSC5180272110-4
Nic NaitanuiWCR687720832687-6-4
Jy SimpkinNMC1068115832988-14-5
Darcy ParishESC97863184178914-5
Tom LiberatoreWBC1068214521558-1-6
Luke ParkerSYC9473267020776-7
Elliot YeoWCC598120832790-7-7
Zak JonesSKC1247120632170-1-7
James JordonMEC82214312-2-8
Chad WingardHWC,F147819301238-3-8
Christian PetraccaMEC1368917651973-2-8
Sam ReidSYF6781411519-1-8
Travis BoakPAC9784237723850-8
Andrew GaffWCC10386313723-4-10
Noah AndersonGCC80828311241-4-10
David MundyFRC887610631973-9-10
Brodie GrundyCWR1298320832593-5-10
Willem DrewPAC887218601970-1-10
Zach MerrettESC142853184189513-11
Jack MacraeWBC818419702181-2-11
Paul HunterSKR3669619930-3-11
Jamie ElliottCWC,F867814415-3-11
Mabior CholRIR,F4255425936-5-11
Todd GoldsteinNMR708612672679-14-12
Ned ReevesHWR857516532166-5-13
Sam Powell-PepperPAC,F3470517830-3-13
Sam MenegolaGEC817116520-4-14
Tim EnglishWBR,F1058720742388-3-14
Oliver FlorentSYC567013519-4-16
Sam DraperESR677931841910012-16
Jake StringerESC,F9186256816849-16
Shane MumfordGWSR8579237718955-18
Tim KellyWCC678318752893-10-18
Ollie WinesPAC967318602178-3-18
Jack GrahamRIC,F588616624-5-18
Josh P. KennedySYC8363215720771-20
Brayden FioriniGCC1197612461966-7-20
Sebastian RossSKC808412381860-6-22
Sam WalshCAC1088919592782-8-23
Dom SheedWCC848313542480-11-26
Sam FlandersGCF64785191345-8-26
Max GawnMER1098316622388-7-26
Lloyd MeekFRR29446381765-11-27
Cameron GuthrieGEC119628441872-10-28
Jarryd LyonsBLC1538317572586-8-29
Harry SchoenbergADC,F707211412372-12-31
Caleb SerongFRC75669562388-14-32
Marcus BontempelliWBC758314522285-8-33
Josh KellyGWSC,F10284186018950-35
George HewettSYB,C677710271869-8-42
Chris BurgessGCB,R58857272276-15-49
Tom De KoningCAR,F13198252782-19-57
James HarmesMEB,C105774152077-16-62
Shai BoltonRIC,F49752131976-17-63
Rory SloaneADC6579197023-4
Hunter ClarkSKB,C526913
Jack HigginsSKF888039
Josh DunkleyWBC,F53751141
Conor NashHWF95801447
Tom SparrowMEC,F65731350
Darcy MacPhersonGCF5974727
Kyle LangfordESC,F9579411
Toby GreeneGWSF6090310
Brent DanielsGWSF46801860153
Jack ReddenWCC70801458
Shaun HigginsGEC,F858816
Rowan MarshallSKR,F139812681
Dion PrestiaRIC109801275
Callum MillsSYB,C152812978
Zac SmithGCR38751973

Key:

AF – AFL Fantasy points scored last round
TOG% – Percentage of Time On Ground last round
CBA – Centre Bounce Attendances
CBA% – Centre Bounce Attendance Percentage
PRCBA – Previous Round Centre Bounce Attendances
PRCBA% – Previous Round Centre Bounce Attendance Percentage
CBADif – CBA Differential of Last Round vs Previous Round
CBA%Dif – CBA% Differential of Last Round vs Previous Round


Advanced CBA Stats

PlayerClubPosLR%LR%vPR%Avg%L3Avg%LR%vAvg%L3R%vAvg%
Jordan De GoeyCWC,F83834.927.778.122.8
Jake StringerESF68684.522.763.518.1
Jack SilvagniCAF63457.83155.223.2
Justin McInerneySYC57573.81953.215.2
Bailey SmithWBC81832.47448.641.6
Adam CerraFRC885742.749.345.36.6
Finlay MacraeCWC,F671525.459.541.634.1
Rowan MarshallSKR,F8141.15739.915.9
Harry SchoenbergADF,C41412.213.738.811.5
Brent DanielsGWSF60-1923.448.736.625.2

Key:

LR% – Percentage of CBAs last round
LR%vsPR% – Percentage of CBAs last round versus percentage of CBAs previous round
Avg% – Average of CBA percentage
L3Avg% – Average of CBA percentage over the past three rounds
LR%vsAvg% – Last round CBA percentage vs average CBA percentage
L3R%vsAvg% – Last three rounds average of CBA percentage vs average CBA percentage

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Members can view the full table here


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