CBAs Analysis: Round 8, 2022 – AFL Fantasy

CBAs – Centre Bounce Attendances – is a statistic that measures the number of times a player is present at a centre bounce at the beginning of a quarter or following a goal. A player that has a high attendance rate at CBAs is around the footy more and (in some cases) in a more fantasy-friendly midfield role.

Analyse the CBAs from the weekend of football in our user-friendly tables in our premium resources section – featuring advanced analytical tools to better measure the biggest changes, both seasonally and week-to-week.

Below, see who some of the winners and losers were from a CBA perspective over the weekend.

Mark Blicavs

Over the past few weeks, we’ve seen Blicavs play the backup ruck role with Rhys Stanley holding the number one mantle.

However, on the weekend we got our first taste of Blicavs as the number one ruck as Stanley went out with an ankle injury before the game. After watching this match, I’m not sure they need to bring Stanley back in.

Blicavs obviously saw a CBA bump to a 90% attendance rate (+69% on last week’s game) and the points followed as result. Blicavs scored 133 points with a 25 possession, 7 marks, 8 tackle, and 21 hitout game.

This begs the question, do Geelong really need Stanley in the side. Yes, Preuss and Flynn were on top in the hitouts but Geelong still dominated the game and would things have been any different with Stanley in the side? I suspect not.

The emergence of Sam De Koning means Blicavs is no longer required in defence, so if he can become the number one ruck at Geelong, he could become one of the best fantasy defenders in the game.

Owners would be pretty happy right now.

Jackson Hately

With Matt Crouch omitted last week, it was always going to be interesting to see who absorbed his CBA numbers. In the end, it turned out to be Jackson Hately.

After coming into the side in round 6, Hately hadn’t attended a single centre bounce, playing in an outside role and in defence. This week he attended 80% of the centre bounces which was a game-high attendance rate for the Crows, so it was clear they were giving him a chance to show us what he’s got.

Initially, they sent him into mark Patrick Cripps but he was unable to contain him. After Cripps recorded around 10 disposals and a goal, he was taken off him and freed up for the rest of the game.

So surely if Hately played his natural game in the midfield for the entire match, his fantasy scoring improved right?

Absolutely not.

Hately only managed a measly score of 67 in a midfield that scored relatively well given how badly they were defeated.

If you’re still waiting for a Jackson Hatley breakout, I think it might be time to let go.

David Swallow

We talked about David Swallow a few weeks ago after he had his best score of the season on the back of a CBA bump. After a quiet week in round 7, he saw another bump in the CBA numbers in round 8 which resulted in a giant score of 120 AFL Fantasy points.

He attended 68% of the CBAs this week after not attending a single centre bounce last week. This was also a 45.6% increase on his season average.

But is this a reason to get excited about David Swallow? Not really.

The biggest factor about last week was Noah Anderson being a late withdrawal prior to the match, meaning Swallow absorbed his numbers. Given Anderson was out with an illness, he probably doesn’t miss much football and will return to the side very soon.

So if you’re a David Swallow owner, you can take this good score but don’t expect it to happen very often.

Mitch Duncan

A few weeks ago I spoke about Mitch Duncan’s increase in CBAs and how that could lead to some better fantasy scoring from the Geelong superstar.

Upon reflection, I feel like that was a bad call.

On Saturday, Duncan attended a season-low centre bounce number of 0. However, we also saw him put up a season-high score of 124 points, after not scoring above 100 for the first part of the season.

After watching this game, it’s clear that the optimum position for Duncan (in terms of fantasy scoring) is playing in defence playing. This allows him to be relied on to distribute the ball off half back which is generally a good role for fantasy, whilst not having to play so accountably in the midfield.

Let’s hope this can continue for a while and we see Mitch Duncan return to form as an elite fantasy scorer.

Max Lynch

With his ‘ backup ruck’ in Conor Nash injured, it probably comes as no surprise that Max Lynch had his highest number of CBAs for the season on Saturday night.

He attended 87% of the centre bounces for Hawthorn which was an 8% increase on last week and a 16.7% increase in his last three games,

Looking at his fantasy scoring, Lynch had his best game of the season with a total of 75 points. However, looking at his splits over the game, he scored 69 points in the first half and 6 in the second half.

Since his return to Hawthorn’s team in round 6, he has taken over as the number one ruck from the injured Ned Reeves. Throughout this period we have questioned the big guy’s tank. Over the past few weeks, he has put up good numbers in the first half but struggled in the second half when he has been noticeably exhausted.

Although he did have to partake in a concussion test in the third quarter, it is clear that he is struggling to run out of games. However, as the only fit ruckman for Hawthorn at the moment he is going to be guaranteed game time and high CBA numbers.

Hopefully, he can use the opportunity as the number one ruck to build his tank over the next few weeks and become a legitimate fantasy option.

Preview of Advanced CBA Stats:

View more CBA Analysis numbers here.

Key:
LG% – Percentage of CBAs last game
LG%vsPG% – Percentage of CBAs last game versus percentage of CBAs previous game
Avg% – Average of CBA percentage in games played
L3Avg% – Average of CBA percentage over the past three games
LG%vsAvg% – Last game CBA percentage vs average CBA percentage
L3G%vsAvg% – Last three games CBA percentage vs average CBA percentage