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Team Analysis

Team Analysis 2022 – Essendon

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The Dons edged closer to breaking their long-standing finals drought last year, but more importantly, they became seriously AFL Fantasy relevant!

Finishing fifth in disposals per game and sixth in AFL Fantasy points per game, the Dons fantasy stocks are on the rise. Their perfect blend of youth and experience provides plenty of interesting options for our AFL Fantasy keeper leagues.

Let’s investigate which Essendon players are worth your while this season.

Take a listen to our latest podcastPre-season 2022: Collingwood, Essendon, Fremantle.

Jye Caldwell

Caldwell’s first season at Bomberland didn’t go as planned. A hamstring injury sidelined the new arrival from GWS for almost the entire season, playing just two games in the regular season for an average of 76.5 AFL Fantasy points.

After opening up the season with 104 points against the Hawks – recording a 53% centre bounce attendance (CBA) rate – Caldwell looked to have found a home in the Bombers engine room before his season was cut short in round 2.

In a positive sign for his job security heading into the 2022 season, the 21-year-old was rushed back into the side to take his place in the best 22 for their elimination final. After not playing AFL in five months, Caldwell registered nine disposals, five contested possessions, four inside 50s, two marks, two tackles and 41 AFL Fantasy points in the opening quarter of the Bombers most important game of the season.

Returning in a high half-forward role, Caldwell didn’t play as an inside midfield on paper but still spent a lot of time around the contest at stoppages outside of the centre bounce. It’s a role we could see him play more in 2022, but Rutten will surely be keen to deploy him inside as well following a full pre-season.

Caldwell is primed for a breakout this season. If you need more convincing of his potential, watch that scintillating opening quarter in the elimination final!

Dylan Shiel

Another Bomber that missed a big chunk of the season due to injury. It was Shiel and Caldwell going down that opened the opportunity for the ‘Year of the Parish’. Shiel also went down in round 2, a knee injury forcing him out until round 19 – spending the remainder of the season building fitness for finals.

Out of his seven appearances for the season, Shiel had more than 70% time on ground (TOG) on just three occasions. His 63.1 AFL Fantasy average was the lowest of his career, having averaged 90 or more in six of his last seven seasons – the other being an 89.1!

Shiel can’t do worse than last season – that’s a given – but can he reach the 90+ mark an eighth time in 2022? While the midfield looks significantly different since he last played, Rutten still seems to love him.

Shiel’s CBAs gradually built back up upon his return, and at 28-years-old, he still has plenty left to give should Rutten deploy him primarily as an inside midfielder this season. Finishing equal second in a recent Bombers time trial tells us he’s ready to return to his best footy in 2022.

As an ‘older’ player (in the keeper league sense), he may be overlooked early in your drafts just because he’s not the shiny new toy on the block. However, he’s the type of player that can immediately bolster the midfield depth of a contending team looking to win the flag this year.

Sam Draper

Yet another player to go down in that dreaded round 2 outing against Port Adelaide! After a horror run of injuries to start his young career, 2021 was shaping up as a breakout season for Essendon’s highly touted ruck prospect.

Starting the season with 78 AFL Fantasy points against the Hawks – including 24 hitouts and an impressive five tackles – before being ruled out until round 14 with a dreaded syndesmosis injury. The 23-year-old had two more quality fantasy scores in his return game (83) and in round 21 (78), before going beast mode in the Bomber elimination final.

Draper put up 121 AFL Fantasy points off the back of 18 disposals (12 kicks), five marks, four tackles, and a whopping 44 hitouts. Taking full advantage of a Lewis Young-Tim English ruck combination, Draper bullied the duo with his sheer size and energy around the contest.

Heading into 2022, hopefully, this is the year we finally get to see a full season out of the tantalising prospect, who’s got some serious fantasy upside when he hits his stride in the next couple of seasons.  

Sam Durham

Few rookies showed more poise than Sam Durham last season. Landing at the Bombers in the AFL’s mid-season draft, the 20-year-old proved his worth for Richmond’s VFL side before switching the yellow stripe for a red one.

Look, I’ll be honest. His numbers don’t justify my excitement from a fantasy perspective, and hence, Durham exemplifies yet another Remedy Kombucha ‘Gut Feel’ pick.

Averaging 55 and 67 in the Tigers then Dons VFL sides, Durham also had a relatively humble 54.7 average at AFL level from his seven games. It’s his composure, ability to find space, and class with ball in hand that says to me there’s another level to reach once he establishes his running patterns in the AFL.

Durham’s marking upside has me excited, collecting five or more marks in four of his seven outings, including seven against GWS in round 19, and six against the Suns in round 22, to go along with 20 disposals and 78 AFL Fantasy points.  

Given his MID-only status, Durham should only be considered as a late-round flier or even an early waiver-wire selection if you’re not convinced by the gut and need to see some numbers first!

Nik Cox

We haven’t seen a player like Nik Cox in the AFL before. Hey, correct me if I’m wrong old-timers, but the unique combination of size, elite aerobic capacity, athleticism, and skills has not been in the AFL in my 20+ years of watching the game.

Above all, it’s the way Cox is being deployed that we truly haven’t seen before. He played just about every position on the ground across the season, including a heap of time playing as a wingman – a nightmare matchup that allowed him to more than seven marks on four occasions.

He finished the season averaging 80% TOG – which included a game as the medical sub where he played a smidge over a quarter – illustrating his immense tank, which will hold him in good stead while he focuses on adding weight to his slight frame.

The 20-year-old arguably looked his best when he chopped out in the ruck, barely troubling the Champion Data staff on the hitouts department but impressing with his tackling pressure and follow up work at ground level as an extra midfielder.

Cox averaged 56.2 AFL Fantasy points for the season, showing his potential fantasy ceiling on a number of occasions, scoring 93 in round 4, 83 in round 10, and a season-high 104 in round 12. His big ton came against Richmond, where he collected 23 disposals, eight marks, two tackles, two hitouts, and a goal.

It may take Cox a long time to find his true position, and hence find consistency in his scoring. However, when a player with this much X-Factor and a clear fantasy ceiling to his game – he’s the absolute pinnacle of the type of player I want to stash to find out what happens next.

Mason Redman

A season average of 68 sells this man short as a draftable DEF option in 2022. Finally stringing together his first (almost) full season at AFL level (he missed one game), Mason Redman truly came into his own later in the season.

Including the elimination final, the 24-year-old finished the season with a three-game run of 96, 102, 76 – an average of 91.3.

While it was a topsy-turvy ride, Redman was a serviceable defender option throughout the season, scoring 75 or more on eight occasions in 2021, including four scores in the 90s and a ton in round 23 – Grand Final week for many fantasy coaches.

On the other hand, he scored below 50 five times, with consistency an element of growth we’ll hope to see heading into 2022.

His 80% kicking efficiency trailed only Jordan Ridley and Jayden Laverde for the best peg at Essendon, which led to him having the second-highest percentage of team kick-ins behind Ridley for the season.

Redman is a nice option to round out your D6 slot in your keeper, with some scope to improve following his hot finish to last season.

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