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CBAs Analysis: Round 11, 2022 – AFL Fantasy

See who the winners and losers were in the CBAs over the weekend.

Paddy Dow

CBAs – Centre Bounce Attendances – is a statistic that measures the number of times a player is present at a centre bounce at the beginning of a quarter or following a goal. A player that has a high attendance rate at CBAs is around the footy more and (in some cases) in a more fantasy-friendly midfield role.

Analyse the CBAs from the weekend of football in our user-friendly tables in our premium resources section – featuring advanced analytical tools to better measure the biggest changes, both seasonally and week-to-week.

Below, see who some of the winners and losers were from a CBA perspective over the weekend.

Archie Perkins

Dos has been calling for this for Archie Perkin’s move to the midfield for weeks, and it finally happened on Sunday.

Perkins attended 84% of the centre bounces for Essendon, which was the most out of any Essendon player. His 84% attendance rate was also a +68% differential from his season average. As a result, we saw a bump in his scoring putting up 82 AFL Fantasy points on the weekend.

We’re feeling that this might continue over the next few weeks as Essendon knows that their season is over and will probably start trying a few different things over the coming weeks. We also saw McGrath and Caldwell used significantly less at the CBAs so this might also be an indication they are clearing up a spot for him.

As a second-year player, Perkins is definitely someone you should be looking at if you have a rebuilding side. He should keep forward status going into next season and will be primed for a breakout year in 2023 if this midfield role continues.

Paddy Dow

Well, well well… if it isn’t Paddy Dow.

He has been putting up some big numbers in the Carlton VFL side this season and has been on the verge of a call up for weeks now and it finally happened on Sunday.

Returning to the senior side for his first game of the year, Paddy Dow attended 15 centre bounces for Carlton, which equates to a 58% share of the CBAs for Carlton. He also did this in only 65% time-on-ground which makes this effort look a little more impressive.

We all know that Paddy Dow has struggled to score in AFL Fantasy previously, but he put up a respectable 72 points this week, scoring at a rate of 0.94 points-per-minute.

It’s tough to say whether he holds his spot in the coming weeks. With Matthew Kennedy to come back into the side, he probably struggles to remain in the team. If he does somehow manage to lock down a spot, I’m not sure he puts up too many big scores playing in that star-studded Carlton midfield.

But he is a podcast favourite of ours and it would be remiss of me not to mention him in this article.

Tom Mitchell

After a lean spell this season, Tom Mitchell appears to be firmly in the midfield mix again at Hawthorn.

Prior to this week, Tom Mitchell had only averaged a centre bounce attendance rate of 55%, but this week he rocketed up to a rate of 79% and put up 112 AFL Fantasy points.

He also put up a big score of 120 points last week on the back of a seemingly low centre bounce attendance rate of 49%, but in actual fact, his centre bounce attendance numbers were at their highest since round 4, it just appeared as a lower percentage given the high number of goals kicked last week.

What I take from the last two weeks is that Hawthorn is starting to settle down their midfield rotations a little more which is a good thing for Mitchell. I also feel like Worpel and Ward going out of the side in recent weeks have provided more opportunities for Mitchell to score in the midfield.

Hopefully, this continues for the rest of the season.

Tom Atkins

I flagged on the podcast that Atkins went into the midfield to play some defensive roles on Port Adelaide midfielders.

Last week he only had 6 CBAs but in round 11 against the Crows, he had 19 centre bounce attendances which worked out to 73% of the game’s total centre bounce attendances. He also had a whopping 17 tackles playing in the guts. As a result, he put up 96 AFL Fantasy points.

It appears to me that Mark O’Connor and Tom Atkins have effectively swapped roles at Geelong giving Atkins an extended run in the midfield which should to better scoring going forward.

Watch with interest to see if this continues, but it looks promising for owners.

Tom Sparrow

A few weeks ago we were preparing to give this guy #2G4P status. Fast forward to now and we’re looking at one of the biggest dips in centre bounce attendances over the weekend.

After averaging 34% of the centre bounce attendances for Melbourne and 49% in the three weeks prior to round 11, Sparrow only went to 12% of the centre bounces for Melbourne and put up his equal lowest score of the year – 52 points.

Luckily, he’s only been shifted out to a wing so he hasn’t been removed from the midfield completely, but it looks like it has affected his fantasy scoring as the role did not suit his natural game.

Players are often prone to bad scores from time to time, so it’s not panic stations for Sparrow owners just yet, but it’s something they’ll be watching closely in the coming weeks.

Preview of Advanced CBA Stats:

Tom AtkinsGEB77-624.477.752.653.3
Jeremy FinlaysonPAF702226.665.743.439.1
Harry PerrymanGWSB,C19-5812.3496.736.7
Archie PerkinsESF621225.961.736.135.8
Stephen ConiglioGWSC,F852937.966.347.128.4
Lachlan KeeffeGWSB63115434828
Connor RozeePAF,C80245.473.334.627.9
Jayden ShortRIB,C671530.153.736.923.6
Zac FisherCAF48181133.73722.7
Jack GrahamRIC,F63242746.73619.7

View more CBA Analysis numbers here.

LG% – Percentage of CBAs last game
LG%vsPG% – Percentage of CBAs last game versus percentage of CBAs previous game
Avg% – Average of CBA percentage in games played
L3Avg% – Average of CBA percentage over the past three games
LG%vsAvg% – Last game CBA percentage vs average CBA percentage
L3G%vsAvg% – Last three games CBA percentage vs average CBA percentage

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