By Nick Westerman and Adam Lazaroy
Richmond is an incredibly tough team to review, as traditionally they have not been particularly AFL Fantasy friendly, other than players running off half-back. Those that are relevant are often too good for the pod, with those that would normally be earmarked for a stash or breakout year, playing selfless roles that are fantasy unfriendly. Despite this, they have recruited some fantasy guns, and there still seem to be a few tasty, undervalued options out there, as well as some players who hopefully prove to be diamonds in the rough.
Take a listen to our latest podcast: Pre-season 2023: Richmond Tigers Preview feat. Lewy from The Point of Difference Podcast.
The Undervalued
Prime Dustin Martin was truly a sight to behold. Three seasons in a row he played all 22 games and averaged over 100, including a monster 113.6 in 2017. These days he’s a completely different beast, spending bulk minutes in the forward line and moonlighting at stoppages a few times a game. With Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper on the side, it looks like these CBAs will largely dry up, although I don’t think it’s all bad news for dusty. Coaches often fall into two camps with fallen stars, either hoping that they’ll return to something resembling their former glory or predicting a linear decline. In this case, I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle. While last year’s output of 8 games at 72.4 points is something of an anomaly for a generally durable player, the days of Dustin knocking out ton after ton are long behind him. Reports out of Richmond are that he’s back to full fitness, so a return to 2021’s form where he averaged in the low to mid-80s seems most likely. If he performed at that level last year, he would have found himself in the top 15 forwards, making him a very handy D2. That’s some great value for someone who may find themselves thrown back into the draft pool.
Jacob Hopper has a lot going for him this year. He has shown in the past he has a strong fantasy game (93.6 in 2019) and should be getting plenty of plus 4s from tackles in his role at the Tigers. He will slot straight into the Richmond midfield and won’t have much competition for minutes there. With any luck, frustrated coaches will have dropped him to the waiver wire at the end of the last year when they were chasing finals and watched him battle through 7 games at an average of 66. He is only 26 so about to enter his prime midfield years and should easily average 85+ for the next 5 seasons.
Tom Lynch is a fascinating fantasy prospect. If I told you there was a forward who has averaged over 80 previously and had ceiling games of 146, 140, 134, and 127, you’d think he would be heavily owned. Unfortunately for Tom, those four games were his only matches over 100 points, and he also showed a significant floor, being used largely as a streaming option for fantasy coaches in 2022. An injury affected 7 aside, he had four games under 50 and finished with an average in the mid-70s. I think that another pre-season where he’s healthy and has some great midfield additions could see him lift that floor and offer some potential upside to prospective owners. Even if he only repeats this year’s scores, he will continue to have those ceiling games where he kicks a bag and wins you three or four matchups off his own boot, and at an average of 76, you could do a lot worse. Don’t be one of the coaches sleeping on him just because he’s a key forward, he’ll make a great value F5!
The Breakout Contenders
Liam Baker is a player who seems to get mentioned every season as a potential breakout option. He is incredibly well respected in the Richmond team but has been a victim of his own versatility in the past. He seems to play in most positions, even being named as a 173cm Centre Half Forward on occasion! With Hopper and Taranto in the side, he might find a permanent role, which for fantasy owners will hopefully be in the backline. He averaged 70 last year, with a seven-game stretch in the middle of the season that went at 89.2, so he has the ability to put points on the board. Baker’s Def/Fwd status is also incredibly handy. He is still only 25 and if he can push his average above 75, you’d take that on your field every week!
Hugo Ralpshmith was a highly-rated rookie when he joined Richmond, but so far he has struggled to nail down his spot in the side, playing six games in his first season and 13 last year. Owners will be hoping that this might be the season he establishes himself in the starting 22. He is lightning quick (as evidenced in his Grand Final Sprint win) and whilst he is listed as a defender, there could be a spot for him on the wing. Either way, if Richmond looks to utilise his pace and get the ball in his hands, he could be a massive attacking springboard for a quick transition into the forward 50. Hugo also averaged 79 in his last four games in the VFL, including 94 in the final round of the year. This is breakout pick comes with a watch-and-wait warning, but if he is a part of Richmond’s best 22 come round one, he could see a significant increase in his fantasy output.
The Stash Options
Jack Graham is someone who I’m forever hoping will pop, only to be left disappointed year after year. He has shown he is a player who definitely has a fantasy game but is just waiting for the right opportunity. Unfortunately, with new recruits such as Hopper and Taranto arriving at Punt Road, he’s destined to be no more than a bit part player as a Tiger. I got really excited when he toured Alberton, but after meeting with Port Adelaide, Jack turned his back on the potential midfield move. He’s only 24, has a great ceiling with scores of 146, 117, and 115 in the last two seasons, and could have a real breakout year with a change of scenery.
Coming up to his 5th year in the system, with 44 games under his belt, Jack Ross could have been in the breakout category, but I feel he’s still a season away from really being fantasy relevant, largely due to Richmond’s midfield recruiting. With some awesome form in the VFL, including a four-game run averaging 100.7 including scores of 113 and 120, he has shown he has scoring potential. My hope is that he can nail down a spot this year and fully break out in 2024. He certainly passes the eye test and looks like someone worth stashing for the future.
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