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CBAs Analysis: Opening Round, 2024 – AFL Fantasy

See who the winners and losers were in the CBAs over the weekend.

In the ever-dynamic world of AFL, Centre Bounce Attendances (CBAs) serve as a critical metric for gauging a player’s involvement in the midfield and, by extension, their potential AFL Fantasy impact. As we peel back the layers of this past weekend’s action, we spotlight the players who’ve seen notable shifts in their CBAs – be it a significant uptick or a surprising downturn. For AFL Fantasy coaches and football enthusiasts alike, these fluctuations can signal changes in role, fitness, or team strategy, offering valuable insights for the rounds ahead.

Riser

  • Player Name: Tom De Koning
  • Team: Carlton Blues
  • CBA Change: +78% (Last Game vs Previous Game)
  • AFL Fantasy Score: 64

In a notable shift for the Carlton Blues, Tom De Koning stepped up with a 78% jump in Centre Bounce Attendances (CBAs) this week, a change largely attributed to Marc Pittonet’s absence from the game. Traditionally, De Koning has shared ruck duties with Pittonet, often moving to a forward role as part of their tandem strategy. However, with Pittonet sidelined, De Koning seized the primary ruck role, showcasing the potential many have speculated about if given the lead ruck responsibilities. Despite a modest AFL Fantasy score of 64 points last week, the increased CBAs signal promising signs for De Koning’s role as the leading ruck moving forward, potentially elevating his fantasy value for coaches eyeing off a ruckman with upside.

Faller

  • Player Name: Josh Dunkley
  • Team: Brisbane Lions
  • CBA Change: -37% (Last Game vs Previous Game)
  • AFL Fantasy Score: 104

Josh Dunkley’s role for the Brisbane Lions took a noticeable turn this week, with his Centre Bounce Attendances (CBAs) dipping by 37% compared to the grand final against Collingwood. This strategic shift saw Dunkley spending more time in the forward line, a move that might intrigue fantasy coaches given Dunkley’s potential eligibility for forward status—a rarity and thus a valuable asset in this season’s fantasy landscape. Despite this significant change in his midfield involvement, Dunkley’s AFL Fantasy output remained robust, with him clocking an impressive 104 points. This transition from midfield to forward hasn’t gone unnoticed, paving the way for Jarryd Lyons to step up and fill the void. Lyons saw a 41% increase in CBAs and capitalized on the opportunity, posting a respectable fantasy score of 94 AFL Fantasy points. Dunkley’s adaptability and scoring capacity, even when out of his usual midfield role, underscore his value and versatility as a fantasy option.

New Role

  • Player Name: Christian Salem
  • Team: Melbourne Demons
  • CBA Change: +38% (Last Game vs Previous Game)
  • AFL Fantasy Score: 95

The preseason hinted at a midfield role for Christian Salem, raising questions about whether it was a temporary move for conditioning. However, the opening round solidified his midfield presence, potentially filling the void left by Angus Brayshaw’s retirement. Brayshaw accounted for 40% of Melbourne’s centre bounce attendances last season, and Salem’s participation rate in the opening round mirrored this closely. This transition could herald a significant shift in Salem’s AFL Fantasy value, suggesting he may inherit Brayshaw’s role more permanently and with it, a consistent scoring pattern akin to Brayshaw’s last season. Salem’s adaptation to this new role could be a golden ticket for fantasy coaches looking for a defender with potential for high scores.

Surprise

  • Player Name: Jarryd Lyons
  • Team: Brisbane Lions
  • CBA Change: +41% (Last Game vs Previous Game)
  • AFL Fantasy Score: 94

Jarryd Lyons’ resurgence into the Brisbane Lions’ midfield comes as a surprise, especially after a season where he seemed out of favor, frequently relegated to the sub role. At one point, his future at the club appeared uncertain, and his potential delisting wouldn’t have shocked many. However, Lyons his not only back, he also thrived, seeing a significant 41% increase in CBAs. This shift has intriguingly allowed Josh Dunkley to pivot to a more forward role, potentially earning him FWD status in fantasy leagues—a move that could be golden given the scarcity of forwards this year. Despite Lyons’ current midfield prominence, skepticism lingers regarding the sustainability of his role, especially with Will Ashcroft’s expected mid-year return from an ACL injury.

Analyse the CBAs from the weekend in our user-friendly tables in our premium resources section – featuring advanced analytical tools to better measure the most significant changes, seasonally and week-to-week.

Preview of Advanced CBA Stats:

PlayerClubPosLG%LG%vsPG%Avg%L3Avg%LG%vsAvg%L3G%vsAvg%
Jack SteeleSKC81-588.487-7.4-1.4
Reilly O’BrienADR80-487.784-7.7-3.7
Rowan MarshallSKR88+1287.787+0.3-0.7
Max GawnMER90-286.689+3.4+2.4
Tom GreenGWSC85+58683-1-3
Luke Davies-UniackeNMC83+385.183-2.1-2.1
Ned ReevesHWR82-584.579-2.5-5.5
Lloyd MeekHWR77-1384.482-7.4-2.4
Jarrod WittsGCR82-1184.286-2.2+1.8
Tristan XerriNMR83+383.482-0.4-1.4

View more CBA Analysis numbers here.

Key:
LG% – Percentage of CBAs last game
LG%vsPG% – Percentage of CBAs last game versus percentage of CBAs previous game
Avg% – Average of CBA percentage in games played
L3Avg% – Average of CBA percentage over the past three games
LG%vsAvg% – Last game CBA percentage vs average CBA percentage
L3G%vsAvg% – Last three games CBA percentage vs average CBA percentage

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