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CBAs

CBAs Analysis: Round 10, 2023 – AFL Fantasy

See who the winners and losers were in the CBAs over the weekend.

CBAs – Centre Bounce Attendances – is a statistic that measures the number of times a player is present at a centre bounce at the beginning of a quarter or following a goal. A player that has a high attendance rate at CBAs is around the footy more and (in some cases) in a more fantasy-friendly midfield role.

Analyse the CBAs from the football weekend in our user-friendly tables in our premium resources section – featuring advanced analytical tools to better measure the most significant changes, seasonally and week-to-week.

Ben Hobbs

With Essendon missing 3 of its main 4 midfielders, it wasn’t the increase for Hobbs that many fantasy coaches expected, from a centre-bounce perspective. The Bombers held a tight CBA group of Merrett, Stringer and Caldwell – all at around 80% each. Hobbs was next at 38% CBAs for a score of 92 points.

Fortunately for Hobbs and his scoring, he is not a very reliant player on points from stoppages. He is good in transition, 16 marks in his last two games have helped him to score. Just 6 of his 23 disposals last game came at stoppages. I expect him to do well in a similar role this week against the Eagles, even when not in centre-bounces.

Angus Brayshaw

This is a move that many fantasy coaches have in their mind with Clayton Oliver set to miss some (?) time. While I don’t know how long the role will last, we’ve seen Angus Brayshaw move into the midfield before. Over the last three weeks he has increased from 0% to 25% to 36% CBAs – he had the fourth most of Melbourne midfielders in Round 10.

There are a few other metrics that help us to define whether his role is changing. In Round 10 he only scored 57 fantasy points (14 from stoppages). That doesn’t give us much information but his stat line was interesting – a season high 6 tackles, a low kick-to-handball ratio and 0 marks. He also won the ball a lot closer to stoppages:

Average possession distance from stoppage
Rounds 7, 8, 923.78 metres
Round 1010.61 metres

Luke Pedlar

Pedlar has had a few centre-bounce attendances over the last two weeks – 6 & 5 CBAs in R9 & R10 respectively. Despite only scoring 46 points in Round 10, Pedlar scored 33 of those from stoppages! It’s his third week in a row with over 30 points from stoppages.

I can’t see his scoring being consistent enough with high variance in his around-the-ground points, but it is certainly promising to see him scoring well when at stoppages. His possession locations in R9-10 have been around 22 metres from the stoppages, improving from around 43 metres in R7-8.

Adam Cerra

After a season low 17% CBAs last week, Cerra increased in usage with 71% in Round 10. George Hewett, who had attended 70% of centre-bounces to R10 was the substitute, so it was clear someone would need to step up. Cerra has an obvious reliance on stoppage points.

In Round 10, Cerra scored more points from stoppages (65) than he scored in total the week prior (62). That is a huge boost and it’s been Cerra’s strength this year for his high scores.

RoundFantasyCBA %Stoppage Points
613071%43
713723%41
813054%84
96217%15
1011971%65

Bailey Humphrey

30.8% centre-bounce attendance isn’t huge, but Humphrey’s impact at them was. He had a team high 5 clearances with one from the centre. This was reflected in his fantasy breakdown, with 38 of his 90 points scored at stoppages. 3 of Humphrey’s 8 CBAs came in the first quarter.

Over the last two weeks, Humphrey’s fantasy output has increased with scores of 94 and 90. It’s predominately thanks to more points from stoppages, something that the raw CBA numbers might not show. Averaged 36 points from stoppages in Rounds 9 and 10 after just 9 points in Round 8.

Preview of Advanced CBA Stats:

PlayerClubPosLG%LG%vsPG%Avg%L3Avg%LG%vsAvg%L3G%vsAvg%
Jack SteeleSKC81-588.487-7.4-1.4
Reilly O’BrienADR80-487.784-7.7-3.7
Rowan MarshallSKR88+1287.787+0.3-0.7
Max GawnMER90-286.689+3.4+2.4
Tom GreenGWSC85+58683-1-3
Luke Davies-UniackeNMC83+385.183-2.1-2.1
Ned ReevesHWR82-584.579-2.5-5.5
Lloyd MeekHWR77-1384.482-7.4-2.4
Jarrod WittsGCR82-1184.286-2.2+1.8
Tristan XerriNMR83+383.482-0.4-1.4

View more CBA Analysis numbers here.

Key:
LG% – Percentage of CBAs last game
LG%vsPG% – Percentage of CBAs last game versus percentage of CBAs previous game
Avg% – Average of CBA percentage in games played
L3Avg% – Average of CBA percentage over the past three games
LG%vsAvg% – Last game CBA percentage vs average CBA percentage
L3G%vsAvg% – Last three games CBA percentage vs average CBA percentage

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