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CBAs

CBAs Analysis: Round 3, 2023 – AFL Fantasy

See who the winners and losers were in the CBAs over the weekend.

CBAs – Centre Bounce Attendances – is a statistic that measures the number of times a player is present at a centre bounce at the beginning of a quarter or following a goal. A player that has a high attendance rate at CBAs is around the footy more and (in some cases) in a more fantasy-friendly midfield role.

Analyse the CBAs from the football weekend in our user-friendly tables in our premium resources section – featuring advanced analytical tools to better measure the most significant changes, seasonally and week-to-week.

Hugh McCluggage

Many coaches were predicting a role loss for McCluggage with Brisbane’s additions of Josh Dunkley and Will Ashcroft, and they were right. With Neale and Dunkley both pushing 90% CBA averages, McCluggage is forced to share with Ashcroft and Jarrod Berry for the final CBA slot.

Sliding down McCluggage down your preseason draft ranks was the appropriate option to take, as his output has dropped significantly. This isn’t just from CBAs though, there are fewer points to go around with Dunkley taking up 7.1% of Brisbane’s points.

Jordan Dawson

There is an opening in the Adelaide midfield mix. Rory Laird is the clear #1, with Sam Berry now a solid #2 (although subbed off with a calf complaint) with Ben Keays now in a full-time forward role. With Harry Schoenberg omitted, it was Dawson who filled the need. He attended 61.8% of CBAs with an even spread across four quarters.

The main question for Dawson is whether a midfield role will help or hinder his scoring potential. In 2022, he was the main distributor for the Crows off half-back and took 43.4% of the team kick-ins. 9% of Dawson’s scoring came directly from kick-ins.

Errol Gulden

As expected, Gulden has been getting some midfield time this season, but we are seeing that there is a dependency on Callum Mills. Gulden’s preseason score of 177 was without Mills. And in Round 3, we saw Mills move into a main midfield role for the first time this year. It meant that Gulden attended just 31% for a underwhelming score of 71.

I expect Parker and Warner to continue as the main CBA guys like last year when both sat at 19% of their disposals at CBAs. Mills was an unconventionally high scorer in 2022, only relying on CBAs for 13% of his disposals. If Mills sticks to the DEF/MID role split, Gulden will make up the remaining CBAs – as we have seen so far in 2023.

Will Phillips

It’s promising signs for the future output of Phillips with a career-high 73.9% centre-bounce attendance and a career-high 67 points in Round 3. It’s obvious that he won’t be close to that when midfield mainstays Luke Davies-Uniacke and Jy Simpkin return, but he is an easy hold as a keeper prospect.

There might be a CBA role not too far away with veteran Ben Cunnington still attending 61% of CBAs in 2023. Tom Powell attended 52% also in the absence of LDU and Simpkin – he scored a handy 80 with forward status.

Sebastian Ross

Ross saw a significant boost in Round 3 due to Jack Steele’s absence, rising from 45.5% in Round 2 to a team-high 89.3%. As the Saints continue to struggle with a depleted lineup, Ross is poised to capitalize on the opportunity. Missing Round 1, he would make for a valuable free-agent pickup.

With Steele out for several more weeks, Ross will be the primary player alongside Brad Crouch in centre bounce attendance. Jack Bytel’s impressive performance in the VFL (126 points from 34 disposals, 6 tackles, and 2 goals) might see him recalled this week but I don’t see his potential inclusions as too much of an issue, as Ross was the clear number three CBA player last season and appears to have progressed with Steele out.

Preview of Advanced CBA Stats:

PlayerClubPosLG%LG%vsPG%Avg%L3Avg%LG%vsAvg%L3G%vsAvg%
Jack SteeleSKC81-588.487-7.4-1.4
Reilly O’BrienADR80-487.784-7.7-3.7
Rowan MarshallSKR88+1287.787+0.3-0.7
Max GawnMER90-286.689+3.4+2.4
Tom GreenGWSC85+58683-1-3
Luke Davies-UniackeNMC83+385.183-2.1-2.1
Ned ReevesHWR82-584.579-2.5-5.5
Lloyd MeekHWR77-1384.482-7.4-2.4
Jarrod WittsGCR82-1184.286-2.2+1.8
Tristan XerriNMR83+383.482-0.4-1.4

View more CBA Analysis numbers here.

Key:
LG% – Percentage of CBAs last game
LG%vsPG% – Percentage of CBAs last game versus percentage of CBAs previous game
Avg% – Average of CBA percentage in games played
L3Avg% – Average of CBA percentage over the past three games
LG%vsAvg% – Last game CBA percentage vs average CBA percentage
L3G%vsAvg% – Last three games CBA percentage vs average CBA percentage

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