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CBAs

CBAs Analysis: Round 5, 2023 – AFL Fantasy

See who the winners and losers were in the CBAs over the weekend.

CBAs – Centre Bounce Attendances – is a statistic that measures the number of times a player is present at a centre bounce at the beginning of a quarter or following a goal. A player that has a high attendance rate at CBAs is around the footy more and (in some cases) in a more fantasy-friendly midfield role.

Analyse the CBAs from the football weekend in our user-friendly tables in our premium resources section – featuring advanced analytical tools to better measure the most significant changes, seasonally and week-to-week.

Josh Dunkley

The centre-bounce player that coaches took with the number 1 draft pick hasn’t yet delivered on those expectations in 2023. Dunkley’s CBAs have increased from 54% in 2022 to 76% in 2023, but his AFL Fantasy average has dropped from 109.8 to just 94.6. Are his centre-bounce numbers actually hurting his scoring? I believe that we should trust in his role, for now.

As someone who took Dunkley at number 2 in a single season draft, I’m not overly concerned yet as the Lions have had the worst matchups to start the year. The Pies, Dees and Power were the three hardest opponents, and he tonned up in the other two games against the Dogs and Kangaroos. With some easier matchups ahead and a good role, I’m hoping his average increases.

George Hewett

The signs were there… a draft steal due to an injury-interrupted 2022, the obvious number 2 in CBAs and most importantly no Sam Walsh. But Hewett has been a disaster for owners, averaging 73.2 and yet to score a 100. His CBAs have dropped from 73% in 2022 to 59% in 2023.

Dropping 14% CBAs per game isn’t a massive jump, right? Maybe for some players. The reason for Hewett’s drop in scoring is that he is heavily dependent on points at centre-bounces. 24.6% of his disposals in 2022 were at centre-bounces, the 6th highest in the competition. Fewer CBAs equals fewer points which is obvious for inside players like Hewett.

Harry Rowston

With Tom Green accepting his one match suspension, a hole opens up in the GWS midfield this week. Rowston has had a lot more centre-bounces than one might expect for a first year player, but his underage games prove his ability as an inside player.

Even with Green, Coniglio and Kelly in the team, Rowston has attended 61%, 59%, 35% and 24% of centre-bounces in his 4 matches this season. He seems to be a like-for-like replacement for Tom Green, so I am intrigued to see how it affects his scoring.

Jye Caldwell

Another player who could benefit from a missing player… Zach Merrett out, Jye Caldwell in? Essendon have held a tight four in the centre-bounces this season: Merrett, Parish, Shiel and Setterfield. Unlike other teams, they haven’t thrown any other players in there. Caldwell seems the obvious replacement as Essendon’s next in line for centre-bounces. In 2022, he averaged 51% of the CBAs and when Darcy Parish was out last season, Caldwell had centre-bounce-attendances of 57%, 56%, 97%, 81%, 88%, and 57%.

James Aish

Will Brodie was back in the Fremantle team. Even as the substitute, he had a big impact on the result as the Dockers overran the Suns late. Brodie had 16 disposals, 6 clearances and 50% CBAs in just 60 minutes of game time. Aish attended just 1 centre bounce for the match after attending 21 and 15 the previous two weeks. As you can see in the table below, Aish dropped in usage by 51%.

We might need to wait until teams are out to know if Brodie remains in the senior team, but if he does, I can’t see Aish getting to any extra CBAs behind Serong, Brayshaw, O’Meara and Brodie.

Preview of Advanced CBA Stats:

PlayerClubPosLG%LG%vsPG%Avg%L3Avg%LG%vsAvg%L3G%vsAvg%
Jack SteeleSKC81-588.487-7.4-1.4
Reilly O’BrienADR80-487.784-7.7-3.7
Rowan MarshallSKR88+1287.787+0.3-0.7
Max GawnMER90-286.689+3.4+2.4
Tom GreenGWSC85+58683-1-3
Luke Davies-UniackeNMC83+385.183-2.1-2.1
Ned ReevesHWR82-584.579-2.5-5.5
Lloyd MeekHWR77-1384.482-7.4-2.4
Jarrod WittsGCR82-1184.286-2.2+1.8
Tristan XerriNMR83+383.482-0.4-1.4

View more CBA Analysis numbers here.

Key:
LG% – Percentage of CBAs last game
LG%vsPG% – Percentage of CBAs last game versus percentage of CBAs previous game
Avg% – Average of CBA percentage in games played
L3Avg% – Average of CBA percentage over the past three games
LG%vsAvg% – Last game CBA percentage vs average CBA percentage
L3G%vsAvg% – Last three games CBA percentage vs average CBA percentage

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