This week I am writing about my beloved Port Adelaide!
Scroll down to see which Port Adelaide players I think will make handy additions to keeper league sides in 2022.
Take a listen to our latest podcast: Pre-season 2021: Port Adelaide, Richmond & St Kilda
Zac Butters
Surely it’s time for a Zac Butters breakout…
In his third year of football, he regressed slightly on his 2020 average of 77.8 (BCV) to finish the year with an average of 76.2. However, there are a couple of factors that contributed to this.
He began the year in the midfield mix for Port Adelaide, averaging 21% at the centre bounce attendances for scores 79, 119 and 58 AFL Fantasy points. In round 4 he was essentially used at every centre bounce and was having a blinder before suffering an achilles injury just after halftime. He left the field on 83 points, scoring at a rate of 1.22 points per minute. If we apply this PPM stat to his average time-on-ground from the rounds prior (79%) he would have scored 116 points and been averaging 93 heading into round 5.
Unfortunately, he then missed the next three months of football.
He returned in round 17 but was only used at 18% of CBAs for the remainder of the season with low time-on-ground in the first few games back. Butters finished off the season playing 8 of the last 10 games but only averaged 69.8 throughout this period, despite putting up a couple of decent scores in the 90s. Obviously, the time off with injury affected his fitness and he couldn’t return to the midfield in the same capacity and score in the same way prior to getting injured.
By all reports, he has been training with the midfield again in the 2022 pre-season and is back at full fitness.
Butters has the potential to be a premium forward in 2022 given his likely role in the midfield. The issue is he’ll probably lose forward status after this year, so be sure to factor this into the equation before drafting him.
Connor Rozee
We’ve been waiting for Connor Rozee to break out for some time now… Is 2022 the year?
After getting drafted at pick 5 in 2018, he burst onto the scene in his first year of footy, debuting in Round 1 and playing all 22 games for the year. The livewire forward averaged 72.6 points in his first season, which included two 100+ scores and three other scores in the 90s.
The youngster looked like he had the world at his feet with some ‘respected’ members of the media saying he should have gone ahead of Sam Walsh as pick 1 in the draft. But since then, things haven’t quite gone to plan.
A foot niggle has hampered Rozee for the best part of the last two seasons. Whilst he’s still managed to play 33 out of 40 games in the past two seasons, we’ve probably seen his progression stifled. After 2019, Rozee looked like a sure thing in Port Adelaide’s midfield due to his awareness in traffic and his ball use. But the footy injury has stifled his midfield minutes and resulted in him playing more up forward.
Last year, Rozee was only used at 11.3% of centre bounces for Port Adelaide which has him ranked 11th for Port Adelaide. However, reports this pre-season have Rozee moving into a more permanent midfield role in 2022. If this is the case we should see a bump in his scoring.
Listed as a forward, this is the year that you want to own him. If the reports are true this will be his ‘transition year’ (where he transitions into a midfielder and may not have forward status next season).
I personally think he’s too valuable for Port Adelaide to take away from the goals. I do think he will see an uptick in midfield minutes but not enough to take forward status away from him.
If he can remain fit he should be a reasonable scoring forward.
Xavier Duursma
Duursma was taken in the same draft as the two players listed above. And also like the two listed above, he still hasn’t had a breakout from a fantasy perspective.
He was quiet in Round 1 last season, scoring 53 against North Melbourne but then went on a decent run averaging 92 from his next three weeks. However, he injured his knee in round 4 and missed the next three months of football.
He returned in Round 19 and played every game for the remainder of the year. In terms of fantasy output. he was rather quiet as expected coming off such a serious injury. However, he did put up a good performance in the qualifying final versus Geelong, where he notched up 11 kicks, 13 handballs, 7 marks and 4 tackles for 97 AFL Fantasy points – his best score of the year.
He averaged 72.1 points last season, but if he didn’t get injured and miss so much football I think his average should have been around the 80 mark.
I think he can go at an 85 level in 2022 but I do have some questions about his ceiling in the long term. Outside players struggle to boost their scoring numbers as they don’t seem to get the same opportunities for contested possessions and tackles as their inside counterparts.
I think the ceiling for Duusma is an average around the 90 mark once he develops a little further. This would make him suitable for your MID 5-6, but he may take another year or two to reach this level.
Willem Drew
Many people are high on Willem Drew but I’m not sold.
In 2022, he had his best season in terms of fitness playing all 22 regular-season games and finals for Port Adelaide, after not playing since 2019. His style of play as a midfielder was quite contested and he often went head to head with some of the best players in the game in a bid to shut them down or make them accountable. As a result, he ranked second across the competition for tackles and fifth for tackles per game which contributed to his fantasy average of 75.5 last season.
The stat that stands out for Willem Drew is his last 5 games. He averaged 80 to finish off the season, which was boosted by a score of 101 versus the Crows – a low scoring, wet and dour affair that played perfectly to his style. A last 5 game average of 80 would look good for a younger player who was still developing, but we forget that Willem Drew has been in the system for 6 years. Also, if you add in his finals campaign, his last 5 average turns to 71.8. He seems to have his contested style of play down pat, so I’m not sure how he boosts his scoring further in 2022. He’s not a big possession getter and doesn’t have an outside game.
So for these reasons, I’m not as hot on Willem Drew as much as some other coaches are. I do think an average around the 80 mark is possible but midfielders who average this are easy to acquire.
Don’t go too early on him.
Miles Bergman
It sucks this guy lost DPP status this year.
In 2021, he was listed as a DEF/FWD and became a handy swingman for many keeper league teams out there.
After being drafted at pick 14 in 2019, and not playing a game in 2020, Bergman debuted in Round 1 of 2021 playing across the half-back line for Port Adelaide. He started the year a little slow but this was to be expected for a player easing into his first year of footy at AFL level.
But as the season progressed he found a home on the wing and put up some reasonable scores from time to time. He averaged 64.4 for the season which looks low, but if you look at his late-season numbers you’ll find some value here. He averaged 71.6 from his last 5 regular-season games, and 79.7 from his last 3. He also averaged 73 from his two finals games in 2022.
These numbers would look great if he was still listed as a forward or a defender, but unfortunately, he’s a midfielder-only this year due to the time he spent on the wing. However, I do see the possibility of him returning to a running defender role at some stage. As mentioned above, Xavier Duursma was injured for a large chunk of the year and this was the catalyst for Bergmann’s role on the wing. When Duursma returned they seemed to rotate the wings between Duursma, Amon and Bergmann. If Duursma regains full fitness and new draftee Josh Sinn can earn a place in the side, we may see Bergman return to the half-back line or even an inside midfielder role. Either would be good for his fantasy game.
Watch with interest.
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