CBA Analysis - Round 15 - The Keeper League
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Data Analysis

CBA Analysis – Round 15

CBAs – Centre Bounce Attendances – is a statistic that measures the number of times a player is present at a centre bounce at the beginning of a quarter or following a goal. A player that has a high attendance rate at CBAs is around the footy more and (in some cases) in a more fantasy-friendly midfield role. 

Analyze the CBAs from round 15 in our user-friendly table below – featuring advanced analytic tools to better measure the biggest changes, both seasonally and week-to-week – and check out my five risers and fallers to monitor in AFL Fantasy.

Risers

Bailey Smith (17 CBAs; 74% attendance) | 127 AFL Fantasy

Feast or famine – it’s the Bevo way! After attending zero centre bounces in the past two weeks, Bazlenka played his natural position as an inside midfielder against the Eagles and went full Rhys Mathieson (Beast Mode)! After being the third-highest centre bounce attendee for the Dogs in 2020, Smith fell down the pecking order in 2021 following the arrival of Treloar, and the re-integration of Dunkley into the midfield mix. When those two went down, logic told us that the former pick seven of the renowned ‘Super Draft’ would shift back into a fantasy-friendly, inside role.

Alas, Bevo.

However, after testing out big-bodied midfielder, Caleb Daniel, on the inside over the past couple of weeks, Bevo handed the reigns over to Baz. Smith has to retain the role following 31 disposals, five marks, five tackles, two snags and 127 AFL Fantasy points, in a dominant display. All aboard!

Tom De Koning (21 CBAs; 84% attendance) | 55 AFL Fantasy

If you’re in need of a 10+ year ruck solution in your keeper league, TDK is your man! An injury to Mark Pittonet has thrown the 21-year-old back in the deep end in an exciting glimpse into the future for Blues fans. While his round 15 score was underwhelming, De Koning broke even with experienced ruckman, Reilly O’Brien for hitouts, and will only build in the role going forward. At just 52% owned in Ultimate Footy, De Koning presents a great stash option for the remainder of the season – with some potential to pop on the field if he builds form, given the role. Don’t delay, honour the TDK!

Will Phillips (9 CBAs; 41% attendance) | 62 AFL Fantasy

Will Phillips truthers – which includes me and likely the entire North Melbourne fan base – were overjoyed to see David Noble ‘Free Willy’ on the weekend. Building form in the VFL following a slow start at AFL-level (not surprising considering he missed the entire 2020 NAB season due to the pandemic, along with an early-year knee injury), Phillips showed convincingly that he was ready for another crack at the top level with two explosive outings in the reserves. The 19-year-old notched two straight games (split across a few weeks due to the COVID-impacted VFL season) with 30+ disposals while laying seven and eight tackles respectively, and 114 AFL Fantasy points in both. Noble rewarded Phillips’ strong form with a solid run in the guts in the AFL, hitting career-high centre bounce attendance numbers in round 15 while collecting 12 disposals, four marks, and four tackles in just 65 per cent time on ground.

Fallers

Andrew Gaff (2 CBAs; -53% round diff) | 71 AFL Fantasy

The midfielders were back in full force for West Coast in round 15. Their mojo, however, was not. The Eagles were smashed by the Dogs formidable midfield, despite the returns of Luke Shuey and Tim Kelly. Their returns allowed Andrew Gaff to return to his natural outside role, but it didn’t help his putrid form, as the home team struggled to move the footy and provide the uncontested buffet of cheap possessions that seagulls love to feast on. Gaff finished with 16 disposals for the third time this season, his score somewhat saved in this game by his seven marks, as the Eagles chipped the ball around helplessly in an effort to stem the bleeding. Gaff has to be a buy-low in drafts and keeper leagues given his scoring history, and the hope that a return to normalcy for the Eagles midfield in the coming weeks can boost his scoring.

Tom Mitchell (15 CBAs; -20% round diff) | 139 AFL Fantasy

I had to double-check that Mitchell wasn’t a late out this week when he wasn’t present at the opening centre bounce. Perhaps a ploy to avoid the De Boer tag at the opening tip? Or, maybe, the latest in Clarko’s recent history of genius tactics: like Sicily the forward, McEvoy the key back, and Kyle Hartigan, the “AFL player”. Regardless, Mitchell’s absence at the centre bounce was not a complete role change; he did receive a reasonable amount of CBAs – and scored incredibly well! However, Mitchell’s CBA usage drop this season has perhaps gone under the radar thanks to his uncanny scoring ability wherever he plays. Traditionally the number one centre bounce attendee during his time at Hawthorn (when healthy), Mitchell sat equal third in the pecking order last week, behind O’Meara and Worpel, and right beside Duke Newcombe. After recording a 75 per cent CBA rate in 2020, it was reasonable to think that in 2021 – a solid two years after his brutal leg injury – Mitchell would return to the huge inside midfield usage, huge time on ground player reminiscent of his ridiculous piggish, goatish, heyday.

Tables

Last Round vs Previous Round

Filter:

PlayerClubPosAFTOG%CBACBA%PRCBAPRCBA%CBADifCBA%Dif
Bailey SmithWBC127881774001774
Mark O'ConnorGEB,C60711568001568
Karl AmonPAC708118693151554
Tom De KoningCAR5582218410361148
Scott LycettPAR10386228511551130
Hugh GreenwoodGCC93761359630729
Sam DayGCF498162700627
Ollie WinesPAC9680218111551026
Matt RowellGCC578217771155622
Ed CurnowCAC698316641243421
Jaidyn StephensonNMF,C998341800418
Luke Davies-UniackeNMC85821255737518
Toby GreeneGWSF6889829311518
Jack SilvagniCAF457541600416
Tim EnglishWBR,F958622962181115
Charlie DixonPAF808841500415
Josh KellyGWSC,F977918641450414
Chad WingardHWF,C515362127414
Jaeger O'MearaHWC808123821970412
Tristan XerriNMF3793627316311
Luke BreustHWF408331100311
Jeremy FinlaysonGWSF568431100311
Sam WalshCAC123921352124319
Deven RobertsonBLC,F676394163239
Jarryd LyonsBLC91801777136849
Izak RankineGCF308052331528
Lachie NealeBLC106892195178946
Luke DahlhausGEF2673150015
Devon SmithESC,F6976150015
Matthew KennedyCAC,F93761248124305
Tom LiberatoreWBC737418781973-15
Sam MenegolaGEC5887150015
Daniel HoweHWB,C11184140014
Zac BaileyBLC,F728683663224
Shaun BurgoyneHWF,B2627140014
Kieren BriggsGWSB,F60661243113914
Brandan ParfittGEC,F917311501246-14
Ben McEvoyHWB,R1018972562213
Sam FlandersGCF827641831513
Jacob HopperGWSC74802071196813
Sam DraperESR397718952593-72
Darcy ParishESC1158718952593-72
Oscar McInerneyBLR115861986168432
Patrick DangerfieldGEC,F9483732831-11
Zach MerrettESC1538617892489-70
Matt de BoerGWSC377841441400
Kyle LangfordESC,F11485526726-20
Jake StringerESF978416842385-7-1
Esava RatugoleaGER,F317415681869-3-1
Sam Powell-PepperPAC,F63685194201-1
Jy SimpkinNMC11082188216842-2
Jai NewcombeHWC6474155415560-2
Peter WrightESF,R56681527-1-2
Joe DaniherBLF86923143160-2
Jonathon CeglarHWR,F8276217521780-3
Tim TarantoGWSC958319682071-1-3
Joel SelwoodGEC497116732077-4-4
Marcus BontempelliWBC1358419832388-4-5
Patrick CrippsCAC608521842589-4-5
Dan HoustonPAB,C978514210-1-6
Hugh McCluggageBLC6684418526-1-8
Cameron GuthrieGEC1127515682077-5-9
Callan WardGWSC887515541864-3-10
Noah AndersonGCC495910451155-1-10
Todd GoldsteinNMR11987167316840-11
Ben CunningtonNMC11280156815790-11
Touk MillerGCC1128316731785-1-12
Jack MartinCAF688128621-4-13
Paddy DowCAC,F777610401554-5-14
Matt FlynnGWSR637313461761-4-15
Josh BruceWBF358714519-4-15
Jack MacraeWBC1118015652181-6-16
Willem DrewPAC8469166216800-18
Tom MitchellHWC1398215542074-5-20
Connor RozeePAF548714525-4-21
Mark BlicavsGEB,C78787321454-7-22
Zac SmithGCR727216731995-3-22
Tarryn ThomasNMF,C59738361263-4-27
Travis BoakPAC1198416621890-2-28
Taylor AdamsCWC116852687
Luke EdwardsWCC328014
Rory LairdADB,C115822184
Max GawnMER97951579
Jack VineyMEC73741474
Clayton OliverMEC93871579
Luke DunstanSKC99871280
Brodie GrundyCWR118792583
Brad CrouchSKC104761067
Dustin MartinRIC,F88911173
Tim KellyWCC36841252
Rowan MarshallSKR,F4365747
Luke ParkerSYC108901973
Scott PendleburyCWC,F85792790
Andrew BrayshawFRC92711860
Andrew GaffWCC718329
Jack CrispCWB,C110791963
Jack SteeleSKC114851387
Reilly O'BrienADR939325100
Dom SheedWCC74841148
Callum MillsSYB,C111812285
Dayne ZorkoBLC,F14278732
Josh P. KennedySYC58721038
Christian PetraccaMEC113911789
Sean DarcyFRR,F64832893
Sam Petrevski-SetonCAB647914
James HarmesMEB,C8277737
Tom HickeySYR66792181
Justin McInerneySYC759014
Jamie ElliottCWC,F5486930
Rory LobbFRR,F8710027
James RowbottomSYC7960623
Oscar AllenWCF6083522
George HewettSYCB58851454
Shane EdwardsRIC6193427
Will PhillipsNMC,F6265941
James JordonMEC9262316
Joel AmarteySYR,F3967519
Ryan ByrnesSKC6876960
Samson RyanRIR-25517
Luke JacksonMEF5375421
Harry SchoenbergADF,C46691352
Callum L. BrownCWF436313
Darcy CameronCWF8471517
Mabior CholRIR,F5566640
Callum Coleman-JonesRIR,F5689853
Trent CotchinRIC72721173
David MundyFRC97752170
Caleb SerongFRC42732480
Ben KeaysADC115901768
Nic NaitanuiWCR99731878
Dion PrestiaRIC67791067
Elliot YeoWCC60761565
Michael WaltersFRC,F4479620
James WorpelHWC76802071
Luke ShueyWCC68621357
Adam CerraFRC56802170
Paddy RyderSKR8966853
Josh DaicosCWC,F6381827
Angus BrayshawMEC898415
Oliver FlorentSYC4368623
Jack ReddenWCC105841565
Ben AinsworthGCF697415
Rory SloaneADC71842184
Shai BoltonRIC,F5069640
Sebastian RossSKC838317
Jack GrahamRIC,F8585320
Paul SeedsmanADC8577312

Key:

AF – AFL Fantasy points scored last round
TOG% – Percentage of Time On Ground last round
CBA – Centre Bounce Attendances
CBA% – Centre Bounce Attendance Percentage
PRCBA – Previous Round Centre Bounce Attendances
PRCBA% – Previous Round Centre Bounce Attendance Percentage
CBADif – CBA Differential of Last Round vs Previous Round
CBA%Dif – CBA% Differential of Last Round vs Previous Round


Advanced CBA Stats

PlayerClubPosLR%LR%vPR%Avg%L3Avg%LR%vAvg%L3R%vAvg%
Liam ShielsHWC70-7030.13039.9-0.1
Caleb DanielWBB46-466.62339.416.4
Tim EnglishWBR,F811541.788.539.346.8
Mark BlicavsGEB,C54-2224.642.329.417.7
Jake StringerESF85-156.784.528.327.8
Jonathon CeglarHWR,F78-351.476.326.624.9
Tarryn ThomasNMF,C63-2737.950.325.112.5
Willem DrewPAC80-1855.46324.67.6
Paddy DowCAC,F54-1435.14718.911.9
Darcy ParishESC93276.99416.117.1

Key:

LR% – Percentage of CBAs last round
LR%vsPR% – Percentage of CBAs last round versus percentage of CBAs previous round
Avg% – Average of CBA percentage
L3Avg% – Average of CBA percentage over the past three rounds
LR%vsAvg% – Last round CBA percentage vs average CBA percentage

Get the full ‘Advanced CBA Stats’ table by becoming a member. Sign up here.

Members can view the full table here


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