Melbourne’s list managers must be dominating their AFL Fantasy keeper leagues…
The reigning Premiers are looking like a problem for the competition for years to come. Not only do the Demons have elite players, in their prime, in every key post across the ground, they also have some budding superstars waiting in the wings.
Let’s check out six Melbourne players worth a look in your keeper league this season!
Take a listen to our latest podcast: Pre-season 2022: Hawthorn, Melbourne, North Melbourne
Luke Jackson (F/R)
Learning “ruck craft, big boy” from arguably the greatest ruckman in the competition, Luke Jackson is the heir to the throne at Melbourne.
The 20-year-old finished the season with a 62 AFL Fantasy average in just 75% time on ground (TOG), playing 21 games during the regular season, and each of the Demons three finals.
Jackson’s top score of 100 came in round six against the Tigers, where he racked up 18 disposals, 12 hitouts, five marks, five tackles, and two sausage rolls. He was no slouch on the big stage either, scoring 83 AFL Fantasy points in the Grand Final, from 13 centre bounce attendances (CBAs), 13 disposals, 3 marks, five tackles and a goal.
In just his second season, Jackson’s improvement was eye-popping. His ability to cover the ground and play like a midfielder – particularly notable in his follow-up tackling – let us know that there are several higher levels for Jackson to reach when he truly hits his prime.
He won’t get the role required to absolutely explode in year three – Max Gawn is still Max Gawn! However, you’d expect Goodwin to give him more opportunities to play as a centre bounce ruckman, particularly if the Demons are blowing out the opposition, meaning Jackson could be a very legitimate forward option in 2022 with a high ceiling on a good weekend.
Long term – there are very few ruckmen (if any) you’d be happier to have in your keeper team than this emerging superstar.
Kysaiah Pickett (F)
Another Demon to take his game to a new level in 2021, was Kozzy Pickett. The 20-year-old caused headaches for small defenders last season with his electric speed and elite skills simply too much for most of his opponents.
Playing as a small forward – a position that’s tough to score fantasy points in – Pickett finished the season with a 64 AFL Fantasy average. Not bad for a second-year player in a tricky position to master.
While his tackling numbers were inconsistent, those that watched him play will understand it’s a huge aspect of his game. Reminiscent of the pure fear that Cyril Rioli would strike into the hearts of defenders trying to sneak out of the Hawks forward 50, Picket possesses that “mow-down” speed and picture-perfect tackling technique. Registering a career-high nine tackles in round 17, Kozzy could build on his consistency of pressure in 2022 to increase his 3.7 tackles per game average.
Adding to Pickett’s upside is his CBA potential. Attending 7% of the Demons centre bounces last season, his time in the centre gradually decreased across the season as Goodwin nurtured his workload and prepared for the finals run.
Kozzy averaged a 16% attendance rate from rounds 1-6, before dropping down to 4% for the remainder of the season, including finals. Expect Pickett to gain more CBA exposure at times in 2022, even if it’s just a spattering here or there again.
Jake Bowey (D)
A late addition to the Dees premiership tilt, Jake Bowey debuted in round 20 and never left the side – even notching 17 disposals (including seven in the first quarter) on the biggest stage in September.
Known as an elite user in his draft year, Bowey wasted no time showing off his weapon in the AFL – going at a ridiculous 87% disposal efficiency in his four-game regular-season sample size. Able to spread from the contest with precision, his ability to find space reminds one of a very early career Jake Lloyd or Caleb Daniel.
Bowey is also not afraid of contact, rating above average for contested possessions and intercept possessions, per Champion Data. At 176cm and 72kg, the 19-year-old still has plenty of muscle left to put on as he enters his second season.
As a long-term keeper, players with elite disposal – especially those getting exposure early in their career (and on a premiership-calibre team no less) – are some of the exciting prospects. The team will want the ball in his hands.
Averaging just 54 AFL Fantasy points from his four games in his rookie season, Bowey has plenty of upside in 2022. In seven healthy games (he scored 10 points in an injury-affected round 5), Bowey averaged 93 AFL Fantasy points – including 105, 115, and 90 in his final three VFL games prior to getting called up.
There are plenty of mouths to feed in the Demons backline – including the next player we’ll talk about, but Bowey is incredibly high on the ‘young defender gun’ power rankings and could explode in year two.
Trent Rivers (D)
I love looking at TOG as a great indicator of breakout upside. It’s simple! More time on the ground, more opportunity to score. Trent Rivers averaged 59 AFL Fantasy points in just 70% TOG in 2021 – nine per cent lower than his rookie season, and a mark considerably lower than most defenders in the competition.
Playing all 22 games in his sophomore season – including every game in the finals – the 20-year-old West Australian is a prime candidate for the famed third-year breakout.
With a high kick-to-handball ratio, a solid mix of contested and uncontested possessions, third-in-line for kick-ins, and more than anything, passing the all-important “eye test”, Rivers ticks plenty of boxes. He looks calm, collected, and composed out there – he rarely makes mistakes – which, at just 20-years-old, is a reason for Melbourne fans, and fantasy fans alike, to get excited.
The dynamic of Rivers, Salem, and Bowey over the next few years will be interesting to watch unfold. Salem presumably gets the lion’s share of the Sherrin for the short-term, but who out of Bowey and Rivers gets to be number two?
As we’ve touched on, Bowey’s elite disposal and crafty uncontested game style likely catapults him higher in the “get him the ball” hierarchy at the Dees, leaving Rivers to potentially play more defensively in the short term.
I’m interested in both long term and will be keeping a keen eye on both Bowey and Rivers this pre-season to see which is ready to take the next step in year two and three respectively.
James Jordan (M)
The AFL Fantasy surprise-packet of the 2021 season, James Jordan was a popular player in both Draft and Classic circles as he took up a prominent role in Melbourne’s Premiership campaign.
The 33rd pick in the 2018 draft, the 21-year-old made the most of his first taste of AFL action in his debut season at the level, averaging 17 disposals, three marks, five tackles, and 70 AFL Fantasy points in just 65% TOG from 21 games in the regular season.
Jimbo Jords had outstanding points per minute (PPM) numbers across the season, proving himself to be a fantasy-friendly option, with true inside-outside capability.
Starting the season as more of an inside midfielder, JJ recorded 34% of CBAs from rounds 1-11. Following the return of James Harmes to the side in round 8, Jordan averaged just 8% CBAs for the remainder of the season.
Combine that with Jack Viney’s return in round 15, and Tom Sparrow’s increased midfield role late in the season – and Jordan’s fate as the super sub for the finals series was sealed – playing a total of 35 minutes during the drought-breaking finals run, including zero in the Grand Final.
It’s tough to see a world where Jordan gets more opportunities in 2022, given the arrival of another capable inside midfielder in Luke Dunstan. Jordan’s best chance short term could be as a health and safety protocol call-up – where he’ll still have the capability to go big on any given day.
Longer-term, Jordan will have to clean up his disposal – he went at just 50% by foot last season – and pass the likes of Dunstan, Sparrow and Harmes to get another shot at being a fantasy stud in the future.
Tom Sparrow (M/F)
A forward-eligible player that genuinely plays in the guts? In most circumstances… YES PLEASE!
Playing 13 games in the regular season, Tom Sparrow averaged 50 AFL Fantasy points in a minuscule 57% TOG, finishing the season as the fifth inside midfielder (by average CBA %) behind Oliver, Petracca, Viney and Harmes. His 19% attendance rate picked up significantly at the tail end of the season, recording a 42% average (+23%) from round 20 to the Grand Final.
If it wasn’t for the Luke Dunstan factor, he’d probably be a lot higher in our forward line rankings (available for members here). If the former Saint slots into a midfield mix immediately, it could spell trouble for the up-and-coming South Australian.
For a player who already struggled to get the time on ground required to be a reliable scorer, adding another player to the mix can’t be a good sign for Sparrow’s short-term job security.
A quality scorer in the VFL, Sparrow averaged 92 AFL Fantasy points in his five games in the reserves last season. His high score of 128 shows us he has a fantasy ceiling when given a prominent inside role.
Unfortunately, in a midfield with so much competition for spots, and no clear pathway for more TOG – Sparrow likely becomes more of a stash option in 2022 than a breakout candidate.
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